Election eve has prediction markets on edge. With polls opening for the 2026 midterms in less than 24 hours, political contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing their largest single-day volume spikes of the cycle, and three markets outside politics have moved more than five percentage points since Friday’s close. Here is what the biggest-volume contracts are saying as of midday Monday, November 2.
Senate Control: Republicans Hold at 58%, But Four Toss-Ups Are Flashing
The headline market, Senate control after the 2026 midterms, is pricing Republicans at roughly 58% to retain their majority. That is up two points from Friday and up almost six points from the mid-October low, when GOP odds briefly dipped below the 52% line. The move is almost entirely driven by late tightening in three states.
Georgia is now 61% Republican hold (from 54% a week ago). Ohio has drifted to 72% Republican after a late polling release showed the Democratic challenger underperforming expectations. The outlier is Pennsylvania, where the Democratic incumbent has slid from 68% to 56% in six days, triggering the single largest intraday reversal in Senate-contract history. Nevada and Montana remain near coin-flip pricing (49% and 52% respectively), and traders should expect wide swings as early-vote data releases tonight.
House control is moving in the opposite direction. Democrats are now 54% to retake the chamber, up from 48% a week ago, with the Virginia 2nd and California 22nd flipping from GOP favorites to Democratic favorites inside the last ten days. That split outcome, Republican Senate and Democratic House, is now priced at 34%, up from 21% in mid-October, and is the single most-traded combination contract on the board.
Fed December Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 41%
The economic markets have had their own quiet shake-up. Odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 15 FOMC meeting have fallen from 68% last Monday to 41% today, driven by last Thursday’s hotter-than-expected October CPI print and comments from two regional Fed presidents pushing back on near-term easing. A hold is now the modal outcome at 54%, with a 50-basis-point cut effectively priced to zero.
Related contracts tell the same story. The probability of US recession in the next 12 months has slipped to 23%, the lowest reading since early August. Year-end 2026 inflation above 3.0% has climbed to 38% from 29% a month ago. If you had been long the “no cut in December” contract since October, you would be sitting on roughly a 55-cent gain per share.
Bitcoin $100K Year-End Contract Jumps to 29%
Crypto markets are showing their largest multi-day move since September. The “Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 31, 2026” contract on Polymarket has traded from 18% last Tuesday to 29% today, following a six-day rally that pushed spot BTC above $92,000 for the first time since July. Ethereum’s parallel contract, “ETH above $4,500 on December 31,” is at 44%, up from 31% in late October.
The move is being credited to two drivers: strong institutional inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the market’s reduced recession odds mentioned above. If risk assets remain bid through the election, do not be surprised if the $100K contract keeps climbing. The structural ceiling is likely 55-60%, since year-end is only eight weeks out and historical volatility of that magnitude in such a short window is rare.
Sports Movers: Chiefs Super Bowl Odds Hit Season High
Rounding out the top movers, the Kansas City Chiefs are now 24% to win Super Bowl LXI, their highest implied probability of the 2026 season after Sunday’s road win over the Bills. The Detroit Lions remain the market favorite at 26%, with the Philadelphia Eagles third at 15%. In NBA markets, the Oklahoma City Thunder have climbed to 23% to win the 2027 title, overtaking the Boston Celtics (21%) as the implied favorite for the first time this season.
Where to Trade
All of the above contracts are live on either Kalshi or Polymarket, and most political and economic contracts are available on both platforms with pricing that occasionally diverges by two to four percentage points, creating cross-platform arbitrage opportunities during high-volume windows like tonight.
- Trade on Kalshi — CFTC-regulated, best for US political, economic, and sports contracts with dollar-denominated settlement.
- Trade on Polymarket — crypto-based, deepest liquidity on crypto price contracts and global geopolitical markets.
- See the full rankings — our regularly updated list of the best prediction markets ranked by liquidity, fees, and contract selection.
With election results beginning to flow in Tuesday night, expect every one of these markets to move several percentage points before the final gavel. Set your watchlists now.