● AI · Tech · IPOs · Regulation

AI & Tech Prediction Market Odds: GPT, Gemini, IPOs & Regulation

The fastest-growing segment of prediction markets: real-money odds on model releases, AI capability benchmarks, tech IPOs, and landmark regulation.

Polymarket $13.7M Vol

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes · 17¢ No · 83¢

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Polymarket $634K Vol

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Yes · 17¢ No · 83¢

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Polymarket $11.0M Vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes · 30¢ No · 70¢

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Polymarket $3.1M Vol

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025: 2026 NBA MVP?

Yes · 95¢ No · 5¢

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Polymarket $8.5M Vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Yes · 4¢ No · 96¢

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Polymarket $3.7M Vol

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Yes · 22¢ No · 78¢

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Polymarket $485K Vol

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Yes · 94¢ No · 6¢

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Polymarket $130K Vol

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Yes · 7¢ No · 93¢

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Polymarket $6.1M Vol

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Yes · 94¢ No · 6¢

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Polymarket $5.5M Vol

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Yes · 48¢ No · 52¢

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Polymarket $20.9M Vol

Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $30.2M Vol

Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes · 1¢ No · 99¢

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Polymarket $0 Vol

Will Person AI win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $0 Vol

Will Person AI win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $5.8M Vol

Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $4.5M Vol

Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $12.8M Vol

Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025: 26 Champions League?

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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Polymarket $0 Vol

Will Candidate AI win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Yes · 0¢ No · 100¢

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The AI beta you can actually trade

Public AI equities aren’t the cleanest way to bet on AI progress: most big-tech names are too diversified. Prediction markets offer pure exposure: will GPT-5 clear a benchmark? Will Anthropic raise at a $200B valuation? Will the EU AI Act trigger?

What’s moving

Model releases: GPT-6, Gemini 3, Claude 5 release windows.
Benchmarks: will a model pass a specific eval by year-end?
IPOs and funding rounds: Anthropic, xAI, Cohere, Mistral.
Regulation: EU AI Act enforcement, US executive orders.

Where the liquidity is

Polymarket has been first-to-market on most AI contracts and continues to carry the deepest pools. Kalshi is quickly adding regulated tech and policy contracts for US traders.

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US Regulated · CFTC

Kalshi

The #1 CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders. Elections, Fed decisions, economic data, sports.

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Global · Crypto-Native

Polymarket

The world’s largest prediction market by volume. Unmatched liquidity on political, crypto, and global events.

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