● Politics · Elections · Policy

Political Prediction Market Odds: 2026, 2028 & Beyond

The sharpest real-money read on the 2026 midterms, the 2028 presidential race, Senate control, House control, and every major policy decision tracked by Kalshi and Polymarket.

Polymarket $23.9M Vol

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes · 28¢ No · 72¢

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Polymarket $15.5M Vol

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes · 17¢ No · 83¢

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Polymarket $12.1M Vol

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes · 39¢ No · 61¢

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Polymarket $7.4M Vol

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Yes · 29¢ No · 71¢

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Polymarket $634K Vol

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Yes · 17¢ No · 83¢

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Polymarket $7.0M Vol

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes · 11¢ No · 89¢

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Polymarket $11.0M Vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes · 30¢ No · 70¢

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Polymarket $15.7M Vol

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Yes · 87¢ No · 13¢

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Polymarket $749K Vol

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Yes · 8¢ No · 92¢

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Polymarket $1.0M Vol

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes · 4¢ No · 96¢

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Polymarket $8.5M Vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Yes · 4¢ No · 96¢

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Polymarket $3.7M Vol

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Yes · 22¢ No · 78¢

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Polymarket $130K Vol

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Yes · 7¢ No · 93¢

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Polymarket $6.1M Vol

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Yes · 94¢ No · 6¢

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Polymarket $4.6M Vol

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes · 40¢ No · 60¢

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Polymarket $855K Vol

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Yes · 8¢ No · 92¢

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Polymarket $5.5M Vol

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Yes · 48¢ No · 52¢

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Polymarket $11.2M Vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes · 30¢ No · 70¢

▼ 2.0 pts Trade on Polymarket →

Why political prediction markets matter

Political prediction markets price every candidate and policy question as a live probability. During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket and Kalshi pointed at the winning outcome days before major forecasters updated their models: and the 2026 midterms are shaping up the same way.

What we track here

Presidential election 2028: who will be the Democratic and Republican nominee, who wins.
Senate & House control: party control probabilities and key race-by-race odds.
Policy outcomes: major legislation, confirmations, and executive actions.
State-level races: governors and statewide offices where markets have formed.

How to trade political markets

Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated home for US residents and is the easiest legal on-ramp for political event contracts. Polymarket offers deeper liquidity globally and is the benchmark political market the press cites most. Seasoned traders typically run both in parallel to arbitrage the spread.

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US Regulated · CFTC

Kalshi

The #1 CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders. Elections, Fed decisions, economic data, sports.

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Global · Crypto-Native

Polymarket

The world’s largest prediction market by volume. Unmatched liquidity on political, crypto, and global events.

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