Prediction market activity hit a post-election crescendo this week, with combined volume across Kalshi and Polymarket clearing an estimated $2.1 billion over the past seven days. With the 2026 midterms behind us and the Fed’s December meeting looming, traders are repositioning aggressively, and five contracts in particular have absorbed the lion’s share of the flow. Here’s what the highest-volume markets are telling us as of November 4, 2026.
The Headline Contract: Fed December Rate Cut Odds
The single highest-volume contract across all US-regulated venues this week is Kalshi’s “Will the Fed cut rates in December 2026?” market, which has taken in roughly $340 million in notional volume since Monday. Odds currently sit at a 72% implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 17 meeting, up from 61% a week ago.
The jump followed softer-than-expected October CPI and a jobs report that showed payroll growth cooling to 94,000. Traders are now pricing in a near-certainty of easing, and the “no cut” side has thinned out considerably. A hold would be a genuine surprise at this point, and shorts are getting squeezed.
Post-Midterm Positioning: 2028 Presidential Primary Markets
With the dust settling on the midterms, Polymarket’s 2028 presidential nomination contracts have exploded in volume. The Democratic nomination market alone saw $180 million traded this week, while the Republican side cleared $145 million. Current standings on the Democratic side show a tight top tier, with the leading candidate at roughly 24%, followed by two governors clustered between 16% and 19%. The Republican field is slightly more concentrated, with the current frontrunner at 38%.
Notably, the “field” bucket (any candidate not individually listed) is trading at 22% on the Democratic side, which is unusually high for this stage of a cycle and suggests traders are not yet convinced about the named frontrunners. Expect significant price action over the next six to eight weeks as early-state polling begins.
Bitcoin Year-End Price Contracts
Crypto prediction markets have also been doing heavy volume, with Kalshi’s “Will Bitcoin close above $125,000 on December 31, 2026?” contract leading the pack at roughly $95 million in weekly volume. Current implied probability: 54%, essentially a coin flip, after BTC’s recent consolidation in the $118K–$124K range.
A separate “Bitcoin above $150K by end of 2026” contract is trading at just 11%, reflecting trader skepticism that a parabolic Q4 move is still in the cards with fewer than eight weeks left. Ethereum markets are quieter but still active, with the ETH/BTC ratio contract (whether ETH outperforms BTC in Q4) trading at 38%.
Sports: NFL MVP and Super Bowl Futures Heat Up
Sports prediction contracts, now fully legal and regulated on Kalshi, continue to take significant flow. The NFL MVP market has consolidated around a two-player race, with the current leader at 44% and his closest challenger at 27%. Super Bowl LXI winner contracts are even more dispersed: the top team sits at 18%, with four other teams clustered between 9% and 14%.
The contract to watch is “Will any team finish the regular season undefeated?” which has crept up to 8% after a surprise Week 9. It’s low probability by design, but the price has doubled from its October lows, and traders who called the move early are sitting on sizable profits.
Economic Macro: Recession and GDP Contracts
Rounding out the top five by volume: Kalshi’s “US recession declared in 2027” contract, which has pulled in $62 million this week and sits at 19% implied probability. That’s down from 28% in September and reflects growing confidence that the Fed will manage a soft landing. The Q4 2026 GDP contract (annualized growth above 2.0%) is trading at 58%.
Taken together, the macro contracts are telling a consistent story: traders expect modest growth, cooling inflation, and a Fed that cuts without needing to panic. If that consensus cracks, expect sharp moves across the board.
Where to Trade These Markets
All of the contracts referenced above are available on the two leading prediction market venues. Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US and is where the Fed, sports, and macro contracts trade with the highest liquidity. Polymarket dominates the political and crypto-denominated markets and typically offers the deepest 2028 election liquidity.
For a full breakdown of venues, fees, and which platforms suit which trading styles, see our Best Prediction Markets rankings. We update it as liquidity and product offerings shift.
Volume numbers in this report are PredictWire estimates compiled from public order-book data and exchange disclosures. Odds are snapshots as of November 4, 2026, and will move; confirm live pricing on the platforms before placing any trade.