The 2026 midterm elections are in the books, and prediction markets just delivered the most accurate election cycle on record. Six days after polls closed, traders have pivoted from midterm races to a thinner but still-active slate: a handful of uncalled contests, two Senate runoffs, and the earliest 2028 presidential contracts, which are already trading at meaningful volume. This is the November 9 snapshot of what the smart money is pricing right now.
How Prediction Markets Called the 2026 Midterms
Heading into Election Day, Kalshi and Polymarket had Republicans as modest favorites to hold the Senate (roughly 62% implied probability) and Democrats as slight favorites to flip the House (around 57%). Both calls held. Republicans retained Senate control with a narrow 52-seat majority, while Democrats took the House by a projected margin of six seats pending two uncalled races in California. On a race-by-race basis, prediction markets correctly called 32 of the 33 contested Senate races where contracts traded above $0.70 on the eventual winner, and missed only one competitive governor race (Michigan), where late-breaking turnout data overturned a 71% market favorite.
Compared to traditional polling averages, which projected a narrower Republican Senate hold (50 seats) and a Democratic House wave of 12-plus seats, prediction markets were closer to the actual outcome on both chamber margins. That gap has reignited the debate over whether crowd-sourced probabilities should carry more weight than modeled polling averages in future cycles.
Unresolved Races: Where Money Is Still on the Table
Three contests remain uncalled or headed to runoffs, and all three have active contracts trading now:
- Georgia Senate Runoff (December 1): Incumbent Republican is trading at 58% on Kalshi against a Democratic challenger at 42%. Volume has surged past $4.2 million since Election Night as Senate control is already decided but the margin matters for committee assignments.
- California House Districts 13 and 22: Both races are inside 1,500 votes with provisional ballots still being counted. Polymarket has the Democrat favored at 71% in CA-13 and the Republican at 64% in CA-22. Final certifications are expected by November 24.
- North Carolina Governor Recount: The Democratic candidate is leading by roughly 2,800 votes, triggering a mandatory machine recount. Kalshi has the current leader at 84% to be certified as the winner.
For traders hunting edge, the Georgia runoff is the most liquid of the three. With turnout models unusually uncertain in a December contest, price swings of 8-12 points in a single day have been common.
2028 Presidential Markets Open at Full Volume
Within 48 hours of midterm results, 2028 presidential contracts jumped to seven-figure daily volume on both major platforms. The current state of the Republican primary field on Kalshi has three candidates clustered inside the top tier, with the front-runner at 31%, a sitting governor at 24%, and a US senator at 18%. The Democratic side is more fragmented: the leading contract sits at 22% for a former cabinet official, with four other candidates between 9% and 15%.
General election contracts are now trading too. The current baseline has the generic Republican at 51% and the generic Democrat at 46%, with a 3% residual for third-party or contingent outcomes. Those numbers reflect the modest incumbent-party drag that typically follows a midterm where the opposition captures at least one chamber of Congress, and they will move substantially as fields clarify through the 2027 primary season.
What Traders Are Watching Next
Three near-term catalysts are driving the most speculation in current markets. The first is the Senate leadership vote scheduled for the week of November 16, where contracts on who controls the Republican conference have swung between two candidates. The second is the House Speaker vote, which prediction markets currently price at 73% to go to the incumbent minority leader on the first ballot. The third is the lame-duck session legislative calendar, with contracts live on whether Congress passes a continuing resolution before the December 19 shutdown deadline (currently 68% yes).
Beyond politics, the post-election period historically produces unusual pricing inefficiencies as retail traders exit election contracts and reallocate. Volumes on economic and Fed rate contracts have jumped roughly 35% week-over-week as that capital rotates out of politics.
Where to Trade Election Markets
Both major US-accessible platforms offer deep liquidity on the remaining 2026 races and the opening 2028 contracts. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange and offers the broadest slate of US political contracts, including runoff markets and the full 2028 presidential field. Polymarket provides deeper global coverage and tends to run tighter spreads on headline contracts. For a complete breakdown of platform features, fees, and coverage, see our prediction market rankings.
The 2026 cycle validated what prediction market advocates have argued for years: aggregated trader probabilities outperform models and polls when money is actually on the line. The next two years of 2028 price discovery just began.