Fed Rate Odds, CPI, Recession & Economic Prediction Markets
Live implied probabilities for every Federal Reserve meeting, CPI print, jobs report, and recession call: ranked by volume across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket
$11.0M Vol
Polymarket
$6.1M Vol
Polymarket
$40.8M Vol
Polymarket
$266K Vol
The prediction market view of the Fed
Prediction markets now routinely beat Fed funds futures during periods of elevated uncertainty. Kalshi’s regulated Fed rate contracts give retail traders a way to take a direct view on the FOMC’s next move with fully collateralized exposure: no leverage, no liquidation.
What to watch
- Fed rate decisions: hike, hold, or cut at each upcoming FOMC meeting.
- CPI surprise direction: will headline or core CPI beat the consensus?
- Recession calls: probability of NBER-dated recession within 12 months.
- Jobs data: monthly nonfarm payrolls above/below threshold.
Trading the macro calendar
The biggest edge in macro prediction markets is not predicting the data: it’s pricing the reaction. Markets often overshoot in the hours after a print, offering mean-reversion trades for disciplined participants.
Open an account to trade these markets
Kalshi
The #1 CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders. Elections, Fed decisions, economic data, sports.
Polymarket
The world’s largest prediction market by volume. Unmatched liquidity on political, crypto, and global events.