Last updated: April 20, 2026. This page is reviewed quarterly by the PredictWire Research Team.
PredictWire ranks prediction market platforms using a transparent, weighted scoring system. We publish this methodology in full so readers can judge our rankings for themselves, replicate our scoring, and challenge our assumptions. Every platform on our Best Prediction Markets list is evaluated against the same criteria in the same order.
The Six Scoring Criteria
Each platform receives a 0–100 score derived from six weighted criteria. Weights reflect what we believe matters most to a trader deciding where to allocate real capital.
| Criterion | Weight | What We Measure |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Standing | 20% | Legal status in the user’s jurisdiction, regulator (CFTC, FCA, none), KYC/AML practices. |
| Liquidity & Volume | 20% | 30-day median bid/ask spread on the top 20 contracts, resting depth at the inside quote, daily settled volume. |
| Market Breadth | 15% | Number of live contracts, category coverage (politics, economics, sports, crypto, culture), resolution frequency. |
| Fees & Costs | 15% | Maker/taker fees, deposit/withdrawal costs, spreads on funding rails (USD wire, ACH, USDC). |
| Accuracy Track Record | 15% | Calibration score on resolved contracts over the trailing 12 months (how closely prices matched realized outcomes). |
| User Experience | 15% | Platform stability, mobile app quality, order types, data exports, customer support responsiveness. |
How We Collect the Data
Liquidity and volume data are collected daily from each platform’s public API or, where no API exists, from scraped order-book snapshots taken at randomized intervals to avoid selection bias. Fee data is pulled directly from each platform’s published schedule and independently verified by placing small test trades each quarter.
Accuracy calibration is calculated against a rolling 12-month window of resolved contracts. For each resolved contract, we compare the implied probability from the closing price 24 hours before resolution to the realized binary outcome, grouped into 5-percentage-point buckets. A perfectly calibrated platform would resolve 65% of the time on contracts that closed at 65%; we measure the Brier score and publish the result.
Review Cadence
Rankings are recalculated monthly. Major structural changes (new regulation, platform outage, acquisition) trigger an off-cycle review. Every change to a platform’s ranking is accompanied by a short note explaining why.
Conflicts of Interest
PredictWire maintains affiliate partnerships with several of the platforms we rank. These partnerships do not influence scoring. Platforms cannot pay to improve their position. Our full affiliate disclosure is available on the Affiliate Disclosure page, and every article linking to an affiliate partner is labeled as such.
Corrections and Feedback
If you believe we have scored a platform incorrectly, or if a platform’s data has changed, please email research@predictwire.io. We publish all material corrections with a visible note on the affected page.