Live board · updated April 21, 2026

The Wire Signal

Where Wire disagrees most with the market. A live ranking of every active Polymarket contract, scored against 194,111 historical snapshots. Sharpest divergences first.

Markets scanned

482

Active Polymarket contracts

Yes value calls

Signal 65 or above

No value calls

Signal 35 or below

Grade A / B

220 / 77

Highest confidence

What is this?

A live ranking of Polymarket contracts where Wire’s read disagrees most with the market price. Every row is a real, open market — click to see the order book on Polymarket.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Think traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence — A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Focus on YES VALUE and NO VALUE rows with Grade A or B. Click the market for the full take. Not trading advice.

Value zone

Strongest signals

Signal 65+ (Wire thinks YES is cheap) or 35 and below (Wire thinks YES is expensive). Ranked by distance from 50.

#	Market	Wire Signal	Market	Wire	Diff	Grade
1	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Geopolitics · $1.2M vol · 8.88 days to close	100 YES VALUE	80.5%	98.1%	+17.6pp	A
2	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Crypto · $4.0M vol · 101.38 days to close	12 NO VALUE	49.5%	21.6%	-27.8pp	B
3	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Crypto · $0.8M vol · 255.09 days to close	12 NO VALUE	26.5%	11.2%	-15.3pp	B
4	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Crypto · $0.7M vol · 255.09 days to close	19 NO VALUE	23.5%	11.2%	-12.3pp	B
5	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Crypto · $1.8M vol · 255.09 days to close	22 NO VALUE	22.5%	11.2%	-11.3pp	B
6	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Politics · $15.7M vol · 930.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	18.0%	34.1%	+16.1pp	C
7	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Sports · $13.7M vol · 69.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	25.5%	44.5%	+19.0pp	C
8	Trump out as President before 2027? Politics · $7.2M vol · 253.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	16.5%	32.9%	+16.4pp	C
9	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sports · $6.8M vol · 39.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	25.5%	44.5%	+19.0pp	C
10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Geopolitics · $5.9M vol · 39.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	19.5%	34.9%	+15.4pp	C
11	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sports · $5.3M vol · 39.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	34.5%	49.7%	+15.2pp	C
12	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sports · $4.8M vol · 39.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	27.5%	47.3%	+19.8pp	C
13	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Crypto · $4.7M vol · 10.05 days to close	25 NO VALUE	38.5%	21.6%	-16.9pp	C
14	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? Sports · $2.7M vol · 228.88 days to close	75 YES VALUE	30.6%	47.3%	+16.7pp	C
15	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Crypto · $2.3M vol · 255.09 days to close	25 NO VALUE	55.5%	21.6%	-33.9pp	C

Lean zone

Mild disagreement

Signal 55–65 or 35–45. Wire sees a directional lean but not enough to call it loudly. Watch-list material.

#	Market	Wire Signal	Market	Wire	Diff	Grade
1	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Other · $0.6M vol · 255.09 days to close	35 LEAN NO	47.0%	38.0%	-9.0pp	C
2	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Other · $1.7M vol · 24.88 days to close	65 LEAN YES	7.3%	13.2%	+5.9pp	B
3	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Geopolitics · $14.1M vol · 253.88 days to close	65 LEAN YES	29.5%	38.3%	+8.8pp	C
4	Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Sports · $0.8M vol · 52.88 days to close	64 LEAN YES	41.8%	50.4%	+8.7pp	C
5	Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Other · $0.8M vol · 255.09 days to close	64 LEAN YES	6.7%	12.4%	+5.7pp	B
6	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Other · $1.3M vol · 253.88 days to close	64 LEAN YES	7.5%	13.2%	+5.7pp	B
7	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Politics · $0.6M vol · 42.88 days to close	36 LEAN NO	89.5%	81.0%	-8.5pp	C
8	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sports · $10.2M vol · 35.88 days to close	64 LEAN YES	42.5%	51.0%	+8.5pp	C
9	Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? Sports · $1.5M vol · 228.88 days to close	64 LEAN YES	42.5%	51.0%	+8.5pp	C
10	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Crypto · $2.2M vol · 10.05 days to close	36 LEAN NO	7.0%	2.9%	-4.1pp	A

Under the hood. Every row starts with the live Polymarket price and runs it through Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration on 194,111 historical snapshots). The Wire Signal derives from that: 50 + clamp(diff/0.15, ±1) × 50 × conf(grade), where grade confidence weights are A=1.00, B=0.75, C=0.50, D=0.25. Excluded: markets priced below 2% or above 98%, or under $100K volume. Last refresh: April 21, 2026.
Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Related: Receipts (Wire’s track record) · Methodology · Daily Wire Brief · Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io