Published: October 29, 2026. The last seven days delivered one of the busiest weeks on US prediction markets since the summer. Combined weekly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket cleared an estimated $1.3 billion across political, economic, crypto, and sports contracts, with the sharpest moves concentrated in the 2026 midterm books and the Fed’s November rate decision. Here is the complete weekly digest for traders who stepped away and want to catch up fast.
Top Mover of the Week: Senate Control Odds Tighten to a Coin Flip
The single most-watched contract on prediction markets this week was Which party will control the US Senate after the 2026 midterms? On Monday morning, Republicans were trading around 63% to retain control. By Thursday’s close, that number had collapsed to roughly 54%, with Democrats climbing from the mid-30s to 46% implied probability.
The move was driven by three state-level shifts. Ohio moved from “Lean R” to “Toss Up” after a strong late-October debate performance from the Democratic challenger. Pennsylvania’s Senate contract, previously trading as a 58% Republican hold, slipped to 51%. And North Carolina, which markets had largely written off for Democrats a month ago, is now priced at 44% Democratic pickup, a stunning twelve-point jump in two weeks. For traders who followed state-level polling and early-vote composition, this was the single most profitable week of the cycle.
Economic Markets: November Rate-Cut Odds Harden at 67%
The Fed’s November 5 FOMC meeting is now one week out, and prediction markets have reached a settled consensus. Contracts on Will the Fed cut rates by 25bps at the November meeting? are trading at 67% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket, up from 61% last Friday. A 50-basis-point cut remains priced at just 6%, essentially unchanged on the week. A hold is priced at 27%.
The hardening came after Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected JOLTS print and Wednesday’s advance GDP release, which came in at 1.8% annualized against a 2.1% consensus. Rate-cut markets briefly spiked to 72% after GDP before fading as the two-year yield rallied into Thursday. Looking further out, the December meeting’s probability of a second consecutive cut is now priced at 44%, and a cumulative 50bps of cuts by year-end sits at 41%.
Crypto Markets: Bitcoin Pushes Past $115K Target, Ethereum Lags
Crypto contracts had their most active week since September. The Bitcoin contract Will BTC close above $120,000 by December 31, 2026? traded from 48% on Monday to 59% at Thursday’s close, following spot’s break above $115,000 and a surge in CME futures open interest. The more aggressive Will BTC trade above $130,000 in 2026? market remains at just 23%, essentially unmoved despite the rally, suggesting traders see upside but doubt a parabolic finish.
Ethereum told a different story. The Will ETH close above $5,000 by year-end? contract is trading at 38%, down from 44% last week. ETH’s relative underperformance against BTC drove the drift, and the ETH/BTC ratio contract on Polymarket now implies a 71% probability that the ratio ends 2026 below its October 1 reading. For dedicated crypto traders, the pair trade of long BTC contracts against short ETH contracts was the cleanest expression of the week’s tape.
Sports Markets: NFL Chaos and a World Series Blowout
The sports book saw two major repricings. First, the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl LXI contract fell from 24% to 17% after a surprise home loss on Sunday knocked them to 5-3. The Philadelphia Eagles climbed from 15% to 21% on the back of a dominant divisional win, becoming the new favorite. The Buffalo Bills hold steady at 14%, and the Baltimore Ravens sit at 11%.
Second, the World Series concluded Wednesday night with the Dodgers taking Game 7 in extra innings. Pre-series markets had priced the Dodgers at 54% and the Yankees at 46%, so the final result delivered modest returns to Dodgers holders. The more interesting trade was the Will the World Series go to Game 7? contract, which traded as low as 18% after the Yankees took a 3-1 lead and settled at 100% when Game 7 happened. Volume on that single contract exceeded $14 million across both venues.
Where to Trade These Markets
If you want to position in any of the contracts covered above, both leading US-regulated venues have the full slate active:
- Kalshi carries every political, economic, Fed, and crypto contract referenced here. It is the only CFTC-regulated venue for election markets and the preferred home for rate-decision trading.
- Polymarket runs deeper liquidity on sports contracts and the ETH/BTC ratio market, and generally offers tighter spreads on crypto-denominated contracts.
For the complete side-by-side on venues, fees, and contract availability, see our rankings of the best prediction markets in 2026.
Next week’s calendar: the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the October jobs report Friday, and the final pre-election polling cycle. Expect volume to climb further.