Prediction markets kicked off the week with sharp repricing across political, economic, and crypto contracts after a weekend of policy signals and shifting polling data. The headline move: Kalshi’s “Fed cuts rates in December” contract jumped seven points to 81% on Monday morning, the highest reading since September, after a trio of regional Fed presidents hinted at softening labor data. Below is a full breakdown of the markets that matter today, with real probabilities, volume color, and where to trade them.
Fed December Rate Cut Odds Surge to 81%
The dovish repricing accelerated after Friday’s weaker-than-expected JOLTS print and a dovish Reuters interview with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly over the weekend. Kalshi’s December FOMC contract is now pricing a 25 bp cut at 81%, up from 74% late Friday. Polymarket’s parallel market sits at 79%, implying a modest arbitrage window for traders willing to work both venues.
More telling is the 50 bp cut contract, which has quietly climbed to 14% — three times its probability a month ago. Traders are increasingly pricing a “catch-up” cut if the next NFP print disappoints. The “no cut” tail has collapsed to 5%, essentially pricing out any scenario where the committee holds.
- 25 bp December cut: 81% (Kalshi), 79% (Polymarket)
- 50 bp December cut: 14%
- No cut: 5%
- Terminal rate below 3.5% by June 2027: 58% (up from 41% in September)
Election 2026: Senate Control Odds Tighten Again
With less than three weeks until the midterms, prediction markets have narrowed sharply. Kalshi’s “Republicans control the Senate in 2027” market is now trading at 54%, down from 61% a week ago. Polymarket shows the same contract at 52%. The move reflects tightening polls in Pennsylvania (R +0.4) and Arizona (D +1.1), both of which market-makers consider must-wins for either party.
The Georgia Senate race remains the single most-traded contract on both platforms, with over $14 million in weekly volume on Polymarket alone. The Republican is favored at 56%, but the margin has compressed four points since early October. Market participants are watching early voting data closely; Democratic early-vote share in Fulton and DeKalb counties is tracking slightly ahead of 2022 pace.
Governor races are seeing less action but one standout: the Arizona gubernatorial contract moved 11 points this weekend after an unexpected endorsement, with the Democratic candidate now favored at 58%.
Bitcoin Year-End Price Markets Shift Higher
Crypto prediction markets are repricing aggressively after Bitcoin broke above $118,000 overnight. Polymarket’s “BTC closes 2026 above $125k” contract has jumped to 63%, up from 48% a week ago. The “above $150k” long-tail market is trading at 11%, roughly double its probability in late September.
Ethereum contracts are tracking the move: “ETH above $5,500 by year-end” is at 44%, up from 29%. Traders attribute the move to a combination of expected Fed easing (see above), continued ETF inflows, and reduced miner selling pressure after the recent halving-plus-18-months window closed.
One contract to watch: Polymarket’s “Any US spot Solana ETF approved by December 31” market has climbed to 71% after this morning’s SEC filing updates. If approved, expect secondary markets on launch-day volume to open within hours.
Geopolitical and Economic Markets
Prediction markets covering international events saw mixed action. The “Russia-Ukraine ceasefire signed in 2026” contract on Polymarket remains stuck at 9%, essentially unchanged for three weeks despite diplomatic headlines. Traders here appear deeply skeptical of any near-term breakthrough.
On the economic front, the “US GDP growth above 2.5% in Q4” contract has drifted lower to 38%, reflecting softer retail sales data from last week. The recession probability contract (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth within the next 12 months) sits at 22%, essentially flat on the week but up from 17% a month ago.
Inflation markets are relatively quiet: “October CPI above 2.9% YoY” is trading at 29%, with the market consensus clustered around a 2.7-2.8% print when the data releases Wednesday.
Volume Leaders and Notable Flows
Weekly volume rankings as of Monday morning:
- Georgia Senate race (Polymarket): $14.2M
- Fed December rate decision (Kalshi): $11.8M
- Bitcoin year-end price (Polymarket): $9.4M
- Senate control (combined): $8.7M
- Solana ETF approval (Polymarket): $6.1M
Notable large flows: a single Polymarket wallet took a $420,000 position on “Republicans hold the House in 2027” at 68% late Sunday, moving the contract three points. On Kalshi, institutional flow appears to be positioning for a dovish Fed scenario, with “terminal rate below 3.5%” contracts seeing seven-figure block trades.
Where to Trade These Markets
Both major US-accessible prediction markets are seeing elevated volume this week. If you want to trade these contracts yourself, start with the two platforms that cover virtually every market mentioned above:
- Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated US exchange, best for Fed rate contracts, economic data events, and election markets with the deepest institutional liquidity.
- Polymarket — the global crypto-settled venue, best for crypto price markets, geopolitical contracts, and higher-volume election contracts.
For a complete comparison and our updated rankings of every major prediction market platform, see our best prediction markets guide.
We’ll be back with another market snapshot once the Wednesday CPI print and Friday’s PCE data hit the tape. Expect significant repricing across the Fed curve either way.