Weekly Prediction Market Rankings: Volume Leaders and Top Contracts (Week of October 27, 2026)

With the November midterms seven days out, the Fed decision eight days out, and the World Series heading into its decisive stretch, the week of October 27 has produced the single busiest trading window on US-regulated prediction markets in 2026. Combined weekly volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and the smaller federally-cleared venues cleared $1.42 billion according to our aggregated contract-level data, with political contracts accounting for roughly 46% of flow, macro and rate contracts another 22%, and sports close behind at 19%. Below is the ranked view of where traders actually put money this week, which contracts moved most on volume, and the handful of contracts worth watching into next week’s FOMC and election day.

1. Political Contracts: Senate Control Reclaims the Top Spot

The “Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 midterms?” market was once again the single highest-volume contract on US prediction markets this week, pulling in roughly $218 million in notional across Kalshi and Polymarket combined. Republican control is pricing at 61%, up from 57% a week ago, with the move concentrated in the final 48 hours after late polling in Ohio and Montana tightened in favor of GOP incumbents. The companion “Which party will control the House?” market is pricing Democratic control at 54%, essentially flat on the week but trading more than $94 million in volume.

Governor races are also drawing meaningful flow for the first time this cycle. The Pennsylvania governor contract sits at 58% Democrat, Georgia at 51% Republican, and Arizona at 53% Democrat. The combined gubernatorial basket moved about $71 million this week, roughly double the prior week.

2. Macro and Rate Contracts: November FOMC Dominates

The Fed decision contract is the second-largest market on the board. The “Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?” contract is pricing a cut at 72%, with “hold” at 25% and a 50 bps cut at 3%. Weekly volume there was roughly $147 million, a 31% jump versus the prior week as traders positioned ahead of the November 4 decision.

The year-end funds rate band contract, which pays out based on where the effective fed funds rate finishes 2026, is pricing a 3.75–4.00% range at 48%, 3.50–3.75% at 29%, and 4.00–4.25% at 19%. Separately, the “Will US CPI print above 3.0% year-over-year in October data?” contract has fallen to 23% from 34% last week after softer gasoline and shelter data began to filter in. Combined macro volume for the week was approximately $312 million.

3. Sports: World Series and NFL Week 8

Sports volume is heavily front-loaded into two events this week. The World Series championship contract, with the series tied heading into Game 5, drew roughly $84 million in weekly volume across the series-winner, next-game-winner, and total-games sub-contracts. The implied series winner probability shifted from a 54/46 split entering the week to 51/49 after the series went level.

NFL Week 8 contracts, taken together, cleared about $112 million. The highest-volume single contract was “Will the Lions make the playoffs?” trading at 81%, followed by “Will any team finish the regular season undefeated?” at 4%, down from 7% last week after two of the three remaining unbeaten teams took losses. The 2027 Super Bowl winner market is already active, with the Chiefs priced at 14%, the Lions at 11%, the Ravens at 10%, and the field at 65%.

4. Crypto and Tech: Bitcoin $100K Watch Continues

Crypto contracts drew about $94 million in weekly volume, down slightly from last week. The headline market, “Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on December 31, 2026?”, is pricing at 44%, up from 39% a week ago after spot BTC held above the $92,000 range through the weekend. The “Will ETH outperform BTC in Q4 2026?” contract has drifted to 38% from 42%.

In AI and tech, the “Will any US company reach a $5 trillion market cap in 2026?” contract is at 29%, and the “Will OpenAI go public before end of 2027?” contract is holding steady at 21%. Combined AI-themed volume was roughly $18 million, modest but up meaningfully from Q3 averages.

Where to Trade This Week’s Top Contracts

The political, macro, and sports contracts above are available on the two largest US-cleared venues:

• Kalshi is the destination for all the regulated US political, macro, and rate contracts referenced in this article, including Senate control, the November FOMC cut probability, the year-end funds rate band, and the CPI contract.
• Polymarket carries the deepest book for the 2027 Super Bowl, Bitcoin year-end, OpenAI IPO, and most of the crypto and tech contracts, and is now serving US customers under its CFTC-registered DCM following the September 2026 approval.

For the full weekly rankings, including the next 25 contracts by volume, see our live best prediction markets page, which is updated every 24 hours. We will refresh these rankings Monday morning after the weekend NFL slate and ahead of Tuesday’s election.