US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Resolved Yes at 10.5% after $173.7M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.8010. Other category.
What Wire called vs. what happened
How the market moved over 6 snapshots
Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 10.5–99.5%.
| Checkpoint | Date | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Start | Mar 25, 2026 | 32.5% |
| 25% in | Mar 26, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Halfway | Mar 27, 2026 | 21.5% |
| 75% in | Mar 28, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Close | Apr 09, 2026 | 99.5% |
Wire Score detail
| Closing market price | 99.5% |
| Wire Score point | 100.0% |
| Confidence band (A) | 100.0–100.0% |
| Grade | A |
| Wire Signal | 52 · CALIBRATED |
| Actual outcome | Yes |
| Brier score | 0.8010 |
What the archive says about markets like this
This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $173.7M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.
The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.