What Polymarket moved on today
Top 15 24-hour movers and the 5 markets where our calibrated read disagrees most with the price. Scanned 40 of the largest active contracts — 7 landed in a strong-signal zone. Biggest move: -17.8pp on US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?.
Biggest price moves on Polymarket today
Ranked by absolute change in the yes-price over the last 24 hours. Each mover gets the current Wire Signal and grade so you can tell whether the move has pushed the price closer to — or further from — calibrated fair value.
Where Wire disagrees most with the price
Ranked by the size of the gap between the calibrated Wire point and the market price. Green rows mean Wire thinks YES is cheap; red rows mean Wire thinks YES is expensive (NO is the value side). Pair the diff with the grade — a 10-point disagreement in an A-grade market is worth more than a 20-point gap in a D.
| Market | Wire Signal | Market price | Wire point | Diff | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | 75YES VALUE | 25.5% | 44.5% | +19.0pp | C |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 75YES VALUE | 18.0% | 34.1% | +16.1pp | C |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 75YES VALUE | 19.1% | 34.1% | +15.0pp | C |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 74YES VALUE | 20.5% | 34.9% | +14.4pp | C |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 70YES VALUE | 17.5% | 29.5% | +12.0pp | C |
Same template, every day
Every edition of The Wire Brief is generated by the same script using the Polymarket gamma-api for the active-markets snapshot, the CLOB prices-history endpoint for 24-hour movement, and Wire Score v2.1 for per-category calibration. Wire Signal (v2.2) derives from the Wire Score and scales amplitude by confidence grade: 50 + clamp(diff/0.15, ±1) × 50 × conf(grade), where conf is 1.00 for A, 0.75 for B, 0.50 for C, and 0.25 for D. No cherry-picking, no hand-picked movers.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Market data from Polymarket’s public gamma-api and CLOB endpoints. Wire Scores computed by wire_score.py v2.1 (per-category calibration). Published April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.