PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0

Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

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Market watch · Sports

Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?

Live Polymarket contract · 229 days to close ·
$8.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.
Market price
0.5%
Polymarket YES

Wire’s read
0.2%
calibrated point

Edge
-0.3pp
Wire − Market

Confidence
A
band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢
Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?
A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?
The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?
Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves
Dec 06, 2026
229 days from now

Volume
$8.3M
lifetime trading

Category
Sports
per our taxonomy

Wire confidence
A
tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric Value
Wire Signal (0–100) 49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point 0.2%
Raw market price 0.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw) -0.3pp
Confidence band 0.0–0.6%
Band width 0.34 pp
Grade A
Lifetime volume $8,335,214
Days to resolution 228.9
Resolution date Dec 06, 2026
Calibration shift
The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon
Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity
Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

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