PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 42 · LEAN NO (A)

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Market watch · Sports

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$8.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

42

Wire Signal: LEAN NO
Wire says: NO is the value side. The market prices NO at 95¢ (a 95% chance of NO). Wire thinks it’s closer to 98¢ (98%).
Market price
4.6%
Polymarket YES

Wire’s read
2.3%
calibrated point

Edge
-2.3pp
Wire − Market

Confidence
A
band 1–3%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market5¢
Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?
A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?
The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?
Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves
Jul 01, 2026
71 days from now

Volume
$8.2M
lifetime trading

Category
Sports
per our taxonomy

Wire confidence
A
tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric Value
Wire Signal (0–100) 42 · LEAN NO
Calibrated point 2.3%
Raw market price 4.6%
Difference (calibrated − raw) -2.3pp
Confidence band 1.3–3.4%
Band width 1.04 pp
Grade A
Lifetime volume $8,217,321
Days to resolution 70.9
Resolution date Jul 01, 2026
Calibration shift
The archive suggests a small downward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly over-confident.

Horizon
1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity
Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

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