Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Live Polymarket contract · 10 days to close ·
$11.8M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 6¢ (a 6% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 8¢ (8%).
Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis
The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.
The basics on this contract
The full Wire Score
Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Wire Signal (0–100) | 56 · LEAN YES |
| Calibrated point | 8.5% |
| Raw market price | 5.9% |
| Difference (calibrated − raw) | +2.5pp |
| Confidence band | 4.5–12.5% |
| Band width | 4.03 pp |
| Grade | B |
| Lifetime volume | $11,796,391 |
| Days to resolution | 9.9 |
| Resolution date | Apr 30, 2026 |
About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.