Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolved Yes at 58.6% after $1531.5M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.1718. Other category.
What Wire called vs. what happened
How the market moved over 307 snapshots
Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 40.5–70.5%.
| Checkpoint | Date | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Start | Jan 05, 2024 | 50.0% |
| 25% in | Mar 21, 2024 | 51.5% |
| Halfway | Jun 06, 2024 | 55.5% |
| 75% in | Aug 21, 2024 | 50.2% |
| Close | Nov 06, 2024 | 58.0% |
Wire Score detail
| Closing market price | 58.0% |
| Wire Score point | 52.5% |
| Confidence band (C) | 41.5–63.4% |
| Grade | C |
| Wire Signal | 41 · LEAN NO |
| Actual outcome | Yes |
| Brier score | 0.1718 |
What Wire would have said halfway through
Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.
| Market price | 55.5% |
| Wire Score point | 51.6% |
| Confidence band (C) | 44.5–58.6% |
| Grade | C |
| Wire Signal | 43 · LEAN NO |
| Wire’s side | NO |
| $100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L | $-100 |
What the archive says about markets like this
This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $1531.5M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.
The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.