Category: Sports

Sports prediction markets moved sharply this week as the NFL passed the quarter mark, the NBA regular season prepared to tip off, and Major League Baseball’s playoff bracket came into focus. The biggest single move: the Buffalo Bills climbed to a 19% implied probability of winning Super Bowl LXI on Kalshi after a 4-0 start, overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs (16%) as the top-priced AFC contender for the first time since the 2022 season. Below is a breakdown of where the action is heading into the final week of September.

NFL: Bills Overtake Chiefs, Lions Steady in NFC

Through four weeks, contract volume on the Super Bowl LXI market crossed $74 million across Kalshi and Polymarket combined, the highest late-September figure in the market’s history. Buffalo’s 4-0 start plus a +54 point differential drove the biggest reprice of the young season. On the NFC side, the Detroit Lions held firm at 17% to win the conference, with the Philadelphia Eagles at 14% and the San Francisco 49ers at 12%. Notable movers this week:

• Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl: 14% → 19% (+5 pts)
• Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl: 19% → 16% (-3 pts)
• Miami Dolphins to make playoffs: 41% → 28% (-13 pts, after 0-4 start)
• Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North: 44% → 51% (+7 pts)

MVP contracts also churned. Josh Allen leads the field at 22%, followed by Lamar Jackson at 15%, Jayden Daniels at 11%, and Patrick Mahomes at 9%. Traders on Polymarket are pricing a wide-open race, with the “field” (any other player) still commanding roughly 43% of the market.

NBA: Celtics and Thunder Split the Board

With opening night nine days away, NBA championship futures are settling into a top-heavy shape. The Oklahoma City Thunder — defending champions — hold the shortest price at 18% to repeat, matched by the Boston Celtics at 18%. The Denver Nuggets sit third at 12%, with the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves each near 8%.

Prediction markets are less confident than Vegas on OKC. Sportsbook implied odds put the Thunder closer to 22% to win the title, meaning Kalshi and Polymarket traders see roughly four points of value against the field. The gap widens in the West, where the Los Angeles Lakers trade at 6% on prediction markets versus roughly 9% at traditional books. Rookie of the Year action has also picked up: Cooper Flagg is a heavy 58% favorite, with Ace Bailey a distant second at 11%.

MLB: Playoff Picture Locks In

The regular season ends this weekend, and prediction markets have already crystallized the postseason bracket. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain the World Series favorite at 22%, though their price has slipped from 27% at the trade deadline as the pitching staff worked through late-season injuries. The Philadelphia Phillies (14%) and New York Yankees (13%) round out the top three.

Wild card intrigue is driving late-week volume. The New York Mets sit at 71% to lock the final NL wild card, up from 48% a week ago after taking three of four from Atlanta. In the AL, the Seattle Mariners jumped to 84% to hold the top wild card seed following a sweep of the Astros. Full division futures now stand at:

Division	Leader	Implied Probability
AL East	Yankees	96%
AL Central	Guardians	89%
AL West	Mariners	78%
NL East	Phillies	92%
NL Central	Cubs	67%
NL West	Dodgers	99%

Cy Young futures have narrowed. Tarik Skubal is the runaway AL favorite at 81%, while the NL race between Paul Skenes (46%) and Zack Wheeler (33%) is the tightest individual-award market on the board.

Cross-Sport Volume and What to Watch

Total sports-contract volume across Kalshi and Polymarket topped $210 million for the week ending September 27, with NFL accounting for roughly 62% of the flow. Sharp traders are watching three catalysts in the next seven days: the NFL trade deadline chatter as 0-4 teams weigh sellers’ markets, the NBA opening-night injury reports, and the final MLB Cy Young start for Skubal on Saturday.

Where to Trade

Both major US prediction market venues are offering deep books on this week’s sports contracts. Kalshi holds the widest range of federally regulated sports event contracts, including single-game outcomes, division futures, and MVP markets. Polymarket offers larger championship-futures liquidity and pairs it with head-to-head player prop markets.

For a full comparison of fees, sports coverage, and liquidity across every major prediction market platform, see our 2026 rankings of the best prediction markets.

September 13, 2026. Prediction market volume across sports contracts topped $184 million this week, with the NFL’s Week 2 slate, a razor-thin AL West playoff race, and early NBA MVP futures driving the sharpest odds movement on Kalshi and Polymarket. Below is a full breakdown of the markets moving the most money, the numbers behind the moves, and where traders are positioning heading into the fall calendar.

NFL Week 2: Chiefs Reclaim Super Bowl Favorite Status

After a Week 1 stumble against the Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs quickly rebuilt their futures market status. Kalshi’s “Chiefs to win Super Bowl LXI” contract opened the week at 14% and closed Friday at 18%, a 400 basis point swing driven by heavy buying from institutional accounts following news that tight end Travis Kelce would return from a minor calf strain in Week 2.

Other notable NFL market shifts this week:

• Detroit Lions to win NFC: 22% (up from 19%). Volume of $6.4M on Polymarket alone.
• Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl: Held steady at 12%, still the second-favorite behind Kansas City.
• Philadelphia Eagles to make playoffs: 74%, down from 81% after a Week 1 loss to Green Bay.
• San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West: 58%, up 6 points on the Rams’ quarterback injury news.

The single largest Week 2 game contract is Chiefs vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Kalshi has the Chiefs at 61% to cover a 3.5 point spread, with over $2.1M in open interest, one of the highest single-game volumes in the platform’s history.

MLB Stretch Run: AL West Comes Down to the Wire

With roughly 15 games left in the regular season, the American League West has become the most-traded MLB division market of the week. As of Friday’s close:

Team	Kalshi Odds to Win AL West	Weekly Change
Houston Astros	44%	+7
Seattle Mariners	38%	-5
Texas Rangers	16%	-3
Los Angeles Angels	2%	+1

The Astros’ surge follows a six-game winning streak, and traders piled into Houston contracts after Seattle dropped three of four to the Rangers. World Series markets are equally active. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain the overall favorite at 27%, followed by the New York Yankees at 18%, the Astros at 11%, and the Philadelphia Phillies at 9%.

National League Cy Young futures also saw movement. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates hit a fresh weekly high at 41% on Polymarket, opening a lead over Zack Wheeler at 29%.

NBA Futures: MVP Market Splits Between Two Young Stars

Even with the season more than a month away, NBA futures traded $22 million this week, led by the MVP market. Two names dominate the top of the board:

• Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): 24% MVP odds, up from 19% last week after San Antonio finalized a healthy training camp roster.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder): 21%, holding steady as the defending winner.
• Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers): 12%, up from 9% following reports he arrived at camp in career-best shape.
• Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): 11%, down 3 points on lineup concerns.

Championship odds tell a similar story. The Boston Celtics lead at 17%, followed by the Thunder at 14%, the Nuggets at 11%, and the Lakers at 9%. Polymarket’s “First team to reach 60 regular season wins” contract has the Thunder at 32%, the Celtics at 27%, and the Nuggets at 14%.

Cross-Sport Headlines and Sharp Money

Two market signals stood out beyond the main leagues this week. First, women’s basketball prediction markets set a fresh weekly record after the WNBA Finals matchup was confirmed, with the “Aces to win the Finals” contract closing at 54% on Kalshi. Second, college football markets are rapidly maturing. The “Ohio State to make the College Football Playoff” contract sits at 71%, with Texas at 64% and Georgia at 62%, all with meaningful weekly volume in the seven-figure range.

Sharp money this week clustered around a few themes: fading Seattle in the AL West, buying Wembanyama MVP contracts under 25%, and taking the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds while they remain in the high teens.

Where to Trade These Markets

All contracts referenced above are available on regulated US-facing prediction market platforms. For US traders, the two dominant venues are:

• Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated exchange offering NFL, MLB, NBA, and college sports event contracts to US residents.
• Polymarket — the largest global crypto-native prediction market, with deep liquidity on futures markets like MVP, World Series, and Super Bowl.

For a full breakdown of the top sports prediction market platforms by volume, fees, and available contracts, see our updated rankings of the best prediction markets.

PredictWire tracks prediction market odds and volume across every major US and global exchange. This report reflects data through market close on Friday, September 11, 2026.

Prediction markets had one of their busiest sports weeks of the year, with the NFL Draft pulling record volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, the NBA playoffs reshuffling championship odds nightly, and MLB futures shifting fast as April performance starts to look less like noise. Here’s the breakdown traders care about heading into the final weekend of April 2026.

NFL Draft 2026: Where the Money Moved

The 2026 NFL Draft, taking place April 23–25, drove the largest single-event sports volume on prediction markets since Super Bowl LX. The headline contract — “Will a quarterback be the No. 1 overall pick?” — settled at 96% in the hours before the draft and resolved YES, but the more interesting markets were the player-specific contracts that swung throughout Thursday night.

Texas QB Arch Manning entered draft week trading at 71% to be the No. 1 pick on Kalshi, drifted to 58% after a Wednesday report about the Titans’ alternative interest, and closed near 74% at first whistle. Polymarket showed similar movement with marginally tighter spreads. As of Saturday morning, the live “Most Round 1 picks by conference” market has the SEC at 54% for the over of 12.5 picks — a price that has held remarkably steady despite a Big Ten run in the back half of round one.

For traders watching the final day, the live wide receiver futures are where edge is showing up. The “Will exactly two WRs go in the top 10 picks?” contract resolved NO at 38% implied probability, a meaningful win for fade-the-consensus traders.

NBA Playoffs: A Wide-Open Bracket

NBA championship odds have not looked this dispersed in five years. As of Saturday, prediction markets price the field as follows:

• Boston Celtics: 26%
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 22%
• Denver Nuggets: 14%
• Minnesota Timberwolves: 11%
• New York Knicks: 9%
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 7%
• Field (all others): 11%

The Celtics’ price has compressed from 34% pre-playoffs after a tighter-than-expected first-round series, while the Thunder have steadily climbed from 17% on the back of strong defensive performance and a healthier Chet Holmgren. The Nuggets remain the most volatile contract on the board — their odds have moved more than 4 percentage points in seven of the past nine sessions, mostly tied to Nikola Jokić availability headlines.

The most actionable mispricing right now, according to volume-weighted flow, is in the Eastern Conference Finals matchup market. Traders are aggressively buying Celtics-Knicks at 31% implied, treating it as undervalued versus a model-implied fair value closer to 38%.

MLB: Early-Season Futures Are Already Moving

It’s late April, but prediction markets are already revising World Series odds based on the first 25 games. The biggest movers since Opening Day:

• Los Angeles Dodgers have climbed from 16% to 23% after a 19–6 start and the strongest run differential in the majors.
• Philadelphia Phillies have dropped from 11% to 7% on bullpen concerns and an injured list that includes two starting pitchers.
• Detroit Tigers — the season’s biggest surprise — have jumped from 2% to 6%, with sharps treating that price as still light given Tarik Skubal’s continued dominance.
• New York Yankees are roughly flat at 13%, despite a hot start, as markets discount April performance against a tougher upcoming schedule.

The AL Cy Young market is where prediction markets are showing the most conviction: Skubal currently trades at 34%, more than double the next contender. That’s a price that historically only one in three April leaders sustains, but volume has been one-sided.

What Prediction Markets Got Right (and Wrong) This Week

Markets correctly priced the No. 1 NFL Draft pick into the high 90s, correctly faded the Knicks’ Game 1 underdog price (which closed at 41% and won outright), and correctly identified the Tigers as undervalued back in March when their futures sat at 1.5%. Where they missed: the closing price on the Cavaliers-Heat first-round series had Cleveland at 78%, and the series went to six games — well outside the implied distribution. As always, the lesson is that prediction markets are accurate in aggregate, not in every individual contract.

Where to Trade These Markets

The two largest US-accessible venues for sports prediction contracts continue to dominate volume. Kalshi is the leader for regulated, CFTC-registered event contracts, including most of the NFL Draft and NBA championship markets cited above. Polymarket offers a broader catalog of player props and international sports markets, with tighter spreads on high-volume contracts.

For a full breakdown of the top platforms, fees, and which markets each one specializes in, see our 2026 Best Prediction Markets rankings. We update odds and rankings weekly — check back next Saturday for fresh analysis on the NBA Conference Finals, the start of NFL post-draft futures, and MLB’s first round of contender re-pricing.