September 13, 2026. Prediction market volume across sports contracts topped $184 million this week, with the NFL’s Week 2 slate, a razor-thin AL West playoff race, and early NBA MVP futures driving the sharpest odds movement on Kalshi and Polymarket. Below is a full breakdown of the markets moving the most money, the numbers behind the moves, and where traders are positioning heading into the fall calendar.
NFL Week 2: Chiefs Reclaim Super Bowl Favorite Status
After a Week 1 stumble against the Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs quickly rebuilt their futures market status. Kalshi’s “Chiefs to win Super Bowl LXI” contract opened the week at 14% and closed Friday at 18%, a 400 basis point swing driven by heavy buying from institutional accounts following news that tight end Travis Kelce would return from a minor calf strain in Week 2.
Other notable NFL market shifts this week:
- Detroit Lions to win NFC: 22% (up from 19%). Volume of $6.4M on Polymarket alone.
- Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl: Held steady at 12%, still the second-favorite behind Kansas City.
- Philadelphia Eagles to make playoffs: 74%, down from 81% after a Week 1 loss to Green Bay.
- San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West: 58%, up 6 points on the Rams’ quarterback injury news.
The single largest Week 2 game contract is Chiefs vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Kalshi has the Chiefs at 61% to cover a 3.5 point spread, with over $2.1M in open interest, one of the highest single-game volumes in the platform’s history.
MLB Stretch Run: AL West Comes Down to the Wire
With roughly 15 games left in the regular season, the American League West has become the most-traded MLB division market of the week. As of Friday’s close:
| Team | Kalshi Odds to Win AL West | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 44% | +7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 38% | -5 |
| Texas Rangers | 16% | -3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 2% | +1 |
The Astros’ surge follows a six-game winning streak, and traders piled into Houston contracts after Seattle dropped three of four to the Rangers. World Series markets are equally active. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain the overall favorite at 27%, followed by the New York Yankees at 18%, the Astros at 11%, and the Philadelphia Phillies at 9%.
National League Cy Young futures also saw movement. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates hit a fresh weekly high at 41% on Polymarket, opening a lead over Zack Wheeler at 29%.
NBA Futures: MVP Market Splits Between Two Young Stars
Even with the season more than a month away, NBA futures traded $22 million this week, led by the MVP market. Two names dominate the top of the board:
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): 24% MVP odds, up from 19% last week after San Antonio finalized a healthy training camp roster.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder): 21%, holding steady as the defending winner.
- Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers): 12%, up from 9% following reports he arrived at camp in career-best shape.
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): 11%, down 3 points on lineup concerns.
Championship odds tell a similar story. The Boston Celtics lead at 17%, followed by the Thunder at 14%, the Nuggets at 11%, and the Lakers at 9%. Polymarket’s “First team to reach 60 regular season wins” contract has the Thunder at 32%, the Celtics at 27%, and the Nuggets at 14%.
Cross-Sport Headlines and Sharp Money
Two market signals stood out beyond the main leagues this week. First, women’s basketball prediction markets set a fresh weekly record after the WNBA Finals matchup was confirmed, with the “Aces to win the Finals” contract closing at 54% on Kalshi. Second, college football markets are rapidly maturing. The “Ohio State to make the College Football Playoff” contract sits at 71%, with Texas at 64% and Georgia at 62%, all with meaningful weekly volume in the seven-figure range.
Sharp money this week clustered around a few themes: fading Seattle in the AL West, buying Wembanyama MVP contracts under 25%, and taking the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds while they remain in the high teens.
Where to Trade These Markets
All contracts referenced above are available on regulated US-facing prediction market platforms. For US traders, the two dominant venues are:
- Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated exchange offering NFL, MLB, NBA, and college sports event contracts to US residents.
- Polymarket — the largest global crypto-native prediction market, with deep liquidity on futures markets like MVP, World Series, and Super Bowl.
For a full breakdown of the top sports prediction market platforms by volume, fees, and available contracts, see our updated rankings of the best prediction markets.
PredictWire tracks prediction market odds and volume across every major US and global exchange. This report reflects data through market close on Friday, September 11, 2026.