Category: Uncategorized

Case Study: Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $139.3M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 160 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–1.2%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jul 10, 2024 1.2%

25% in Aug 18, 2024 0.4%

Halfway Sep 27, 2024 0.2%

75% in Nov 06, 2024 0.2%

Close Dec 16, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Sep 28, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.2%

Wire Score point 0.4%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.9%

Grade A

Wire Signal 51 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $139.3M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $133.1M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.0%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 211 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–3.0%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 18, 2024 3.0%

25% in Nov 09, 2024 1.7%

Halfway Jan 01, 2025 1.5%

75% in Feb 22, 2025 2.2%

Close Apr 16, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.0%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jan 01, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 1.5%

Wire Score point 0.9%

Confidence band (A) 0.3–1.6%

Grade A

Wire Signal 48 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side NO

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L +$1

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $133.1M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $124.0M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 144 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–1.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jul 10, 2024 1.4%

25% in Aug 14, 2024 0.8%

Halfway Sep 19, 2024 0.8%

75% in Oct 25, 2024 0.2%

Close Nov 30, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Sep 20, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.8%

Wire Score point 1.3%

Confidence band (A) 0.6–2.0%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $124.0M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Resolved No at 3.6% after $242.2M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0013. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 52). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.5%

market at resolution

Wire point

1.2%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

52

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0013

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 48 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.5–32.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start May 23, 2025 9.5%

25% in Jun 03, 2025 32.5%

Halfway Jun 15, 2025 5.5%

75% in Jun 27, 2025 16.7%

Close Jul 09, 2025 0.5%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.5%

Wire Score point 1.2%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–3.3%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0013

Mid-life snapshot · Jun 16, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 5.5%

Wire Score point 7.3%

Confidence band (B) 3.6–11.1%

Grade B

Wire Signal 55 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $242.2M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Netanyahu out by March 31? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Resolved No at 0.4% after $104.2M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 32 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–24.0%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Mar 03, 2026 24.0%

25% in Mar 10, 2026 2.1%

Halfway Mar 19, 2026 2.8%

75% in Mar 27, 2026 0.7%

Close Apr 04, 2026 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Mar 20, 2026

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 1.9%

Wire Score point 2.9%

Confidence band (A) 1.7–4.1%

Grade A

Wire Signal 53 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $104.2M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $235.1M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 134 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–12.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 18, 2025 12.0%

25% in Oct 21, 2025 11.0%

Halfway Nov 23, 2025 6.9%

75% in Dec 25, 2025 1.6%

Close Jan 28, 2026 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Nov 24, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 6.7%

Wire Score point 9.0%

Confidence band (A) 8.1–9.9%

Grade A

Wire Signal 58 · LEAN YES

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $235.1M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Resolved No at 0.8% after $326.5M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0001. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0001

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 174 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–7.9%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Nov 09, 2024 3.4%

25% in Dec 22, 2024 0.5%

Halfway Feb 03, 2025 0.1%

75% in Mar 18, 2025 0.1%

Close May 01, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0001

Mid-life snapshot · Feb 04, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.2%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.5%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $326.5M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: US government shutdown Saturday? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

US government shutdown Saturday?

Resolved Yes at 41.0% after $157.3M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.3481. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

The market got the call — but it was close. Expected value was not overwhelming.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved YES.

Closing price

99.9%

market at resolution

Wire point

100.0%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

Yes

Brier 0.3481

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 84 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 8.5–99.9%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Nov 14, 2025 28.5%

25% in Dec 04, 2025 28.5%

Halfway Dec 24, 2025 26.0%

75% in Jan 14, 2026 27.5%

Close Feb 04, 2026 99.9%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 99.9%

Wire Score point 100.0%

Confidence band (A) 100.0–100.0%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome Yes

Brier score 0.3481

Mid-life snapshot · Dec 25, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 27.0%

Wire Score point 34.8%

Confidence band (C) 28.2–41.4%

Grade C

Wire Signal 63 · LEAN YES

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L +$270

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $157.3M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Resolved No at 4.2% after $127.7M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0018. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 48). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

4.2%

market at resolution

Wire point

3.6%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

48

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0018

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 212 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–5.4%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Aug 06, 2025 2.6%

25% in Sep 27, 2025 0.1%

Halfway Nov 19, 2025 3.8%

75% in Jan 10, 2026 1.8%

Close Mar 04, 2026 4.2%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 4.2%

Wire Score point 3.6%

Confidence band (A) 2.0–5.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 48 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0018

Mid-life snapshot · Nov 20, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 1.0%

Wire Score point 1.6%

Confidence band (A) 0.9–2.3%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $127.7M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Iconic Markets

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolved No at 43.5% after $1037.0M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.1892. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

The market got directionally correct but paid a non-trivial price for uncertainty.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 48). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

42.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

41.2%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

48

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.1892

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 306 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.7–53.9%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jan 06, 2024 3.1%

25% in Mar 22, 2024 1.6%

Halfway Jun 06, 2024 1.8%

75% in Aug 21, 2024 48.1%

Close Nov 06, 2024 42.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 42.1%

Wire Score point 41.2%

Confidence band (C) 30.4–52.0%

Grade C

Wire Signal 48 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.1892

Mid-life snapshot · Jun 07, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 1.5%

Wire Score point 2.0%

Confidence band (A) 1.2–2.8%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $1037.0M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jul 10, 2024	1.2%
25% in	Aug 18, 2024	0.4%
Halfway	Sep 27, 2024	0.2%
75% in	Nov 06, 2024	0.2%
Close	Dec 16, 2024	0.1%

Closing market price	0.1%
Wire Score point	0.1%
Confidence band (A)	0.0–0.4%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	50 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	No
Brier score	0.0000

Market price	0.2%
Wire Score point	0.4%
Confidence band (A)	0.0–0.9%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	51 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 18, 2024	3.0%
25% in	Nov 09, 2024	1.7%
Halfway	Jan 01, 2025	1.5%
75% in	Feb 22, 2025	2.2%
Close	Apr 16, 2025	0.1%

Market price	1.5%
Wire Score point	0.9%
Confidence band (A)	0.3–1.6%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	48 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	NO
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	+$1

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jul 10, 2024	1.4%
25% in	Aug 14, 2024	0.8%
Halfway	Sep 19, 2024	0.8%
75% in	Oct 25, 2024	0.2%
Close	Nov 30, 2024	0.1%

Market price	0.8%
Wire Score point	1.3%
Confidence band (A)	0.6–2.0%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	May 23, 2025	9.5%
25% in	Jun 03, 2025	32.5%
Halfway	Jun 15, 2025	5.5%
75% in	Jun 27, 2025	16.7%
Close	Jul 09, 2025	0.5%

Closing market price	0.5%
Wire Score point	1.2%
Confidence band (A)	0.0–3.3%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	No
Brier score	0.0013

Market price	5.5%
Wire Score point	7.3%
Confidence band (B)	3.6–11.1%
Grade	B
Wire Signal	55 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Mar 03, 2026	24.0%
25% in	Mar 10, 2026	2.1%
Halfway	Mar 19, 2026	2.8%
75% in	Mar 27, 2026	0.7%
Close	Apr 04, 2026	0.1%

Market price	1.9%
Wire Score point	2.9%
Confidence band (A)	1.7–4.1%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	53 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 18, 2025	12.0%
25% in	Oct 21, 2025	11.0%
Halfway	Nov 23, 2025	6.9%
75% in	Dec 25, 2025	1.6%
Close	Jan 28, 2026	0.1%

Market price	6.7%
Wire Score point	9.0%
Confidence band (A)	8.1–9.9%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	58 · LEAN YES
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Nov 09, 2024	3.4%
25% in	Dec 22, 2024	0.5%
Halfway	Feb 03, 2025	0.1%
75% in	Mar 18, 2025	0.1%
Close	May 01, 2025	0.1%

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Nov 14, 2025	28.5%
25% in	Dec 04, 2025	28.5%
Halfway	Dec 24, 2025	26.0%
75% in	Jan 14, 2026	27.5%
Close	Feb 04, 2026	99.9%

Closing market price	99.9%
Wire Score point	100.0%
Confidence band (A)	100.0–100.0%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	50 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	Yes
Brier score	0.3481

Market price	27.0%
Wire Score point	34.8%
Confidence band (C)	28.2–41.4%
Grade	C
Wire Signal	63 · LEAN YES
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	+$270

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Aug 06, 2025	2.6%
25% in	Sep 27, 2025	0.1%
Halfway	Nov 19, 2025	3.8%
75% in	Jan 10, 2026	1.8%
Close	Mar 04, 2026	4.2%

Closing market price	4.2%
Wire Score point	3.6%
Confidence band (A)	2.0–5.2%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	48 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	No
Brier score	0.0018

Category: Uncategorized

Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 160 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 211 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 144 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 48 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Netanyahu out by March 31?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 32 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 134 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 174 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

US government shutdown Saturday?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 84 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 212 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

What Wire called vs. what happened

How the market moved over 306 snapshots

Wire Score detail

What Wire would have said halfway through

What the archive says about markets like this

Market price	1.0%
Wire Score point	1.6%
Confidence band (A)	0.9–2.3%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jan 06, 2024	3.1%
25% in	Mar 22, 2024	1.6%
Halfway	Jun 06, 2024	1.8%
75% in	Aug 21, 2024	48.1%
Close	Nov 06, 2024	42.1%

Closing market price	42.1%
Wire Score point	41.2%
Confidence band (C)	30.4–52.0%
Grade	C
Wire Signal	48 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	No
Brier score	0.1892