With just over three weeks until the Federal Reserve’s November 4-5 FOMC meeting, prediction markets are converging on a quarter-point cut as the base case. Kalshi’s Fed decision contracts currently price a 62% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, 15% odds of a larger 50 bps move, and 22% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee holds the policy rate steady at the current 3.75-4.00% range. The implied path through year-end has tightened sharply over the past two weeks following softer-than-expected September payrolls and a cooler core PCE print.
The November FOMC: Markets Lean Toward a Measured Cut
The dominant positioning on both Kalshi and Polymarket favors a 25 bps cut, but the distribution has shifted meaningfully since the September meeting. Two weeks ago, hold odds sat near 38%. The latest employment and inflation data pulled those odds down roughly 16 points and redistributed weight almost entirely toward a 25 bps move rather than a jumbo cut.
Here’s the current breakdown across the two largest prediction market venues:
| Scenario | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| 50 bps cut | 15% | 14% |
| 25 bps cut | 62% | 63% |
| Hold at 3.75-4.00% | 22% | 22% |
| Rate hike | 1% | 1% |
The convergence between the two venues is notable. Through most of 2026, Polymarket contracts have run 3-5 points more dovish than Kalshi on rate decisions. The current alignment suggests both pools of capital are reading the data the same way, which historically correlates with higher calibration against the eventual FOMC outcome.
The December Meeting Is Where the Real Debate Lives
While the November decision looks increasingly priced, the December 15-16 meeting is where traders are placing more aggressive bets. Current contracts imply the following distribution for the year-end policy rate:
- Below 3.00%: 18% probability (implies cuts at both remaining meetings, with at least one 50 bps move)
- 3.00-3.25%: 38% probability (consistent with 25 bps cuts in November and December)
- 3.25-3.50%: 31% probability (one cut, one hold, in some order)
- Above 3.50%: 13% probability (one cut or none)
The 38% weight on a terminal 3.00-3.25% range is the single largest concentration and roughly matches the median dot from the September Summary of Economic Projections. Where prediction markets diverge from the SEP is in the left tail: the 18% probability of a sub-3.00% year-end rate implies a meaningfully higher chance of a 50 bps move than Fed speakers have signaled in recent remarks.
What Could Move the Odds Before November 5
Three data points stand out as the most likely catalysts for repricing between now and the meeting:
October CPI (release: October 29). Core CPI running above 0.3% month-over-month would likely compress hold odds back toward 30% and pull 50 bps probability below 10%. A print at or below 0.2% would do the opposite, pushing the jumbo-cut probability back toward 20%.
October jobs report (release: November 7, after the meeting). This one doesn’t influence November directly but will dominate December pricing within hours of the FOMC decision. Traders holding December contracts should expect sharp moves in the window between the FOMC statement and the Friday payrolls release.
Fed speakers during the blackout approach. The pre-meeting blackout begins October 25. Any dovish signaling from Powell, Jefferson, or Williams in the final week before blackout would quickly compress hold odds. Markets have historically treated Jefferson’s remarks as the most informative near-term signal.
How to Read the Positioning
Prediction market odds on rate decisions typically outperform fed funds futures in the final two weeks before a meeting, in part because they absorb retail conviction more directly and in part because they settle on binary outcomes rather than implied averages. The current 62% weight on a 25 bps cut is roughly in line with fed funds futures pricing (currently implying 24 bps of easing), which suggests the two markets are reading the data consistently and that surprise risk is relatively balanced.
The real asymmetry sits in the tails. A 15% probability of a 50 bps cut is historically high this close to a meeting without explicit Fed signaling in that direction. If Powell wanted to steer markets away from that outcome, the window to do so is narrow.
Where to Trade
Fed decision contracts and year-end rate range markets are available on both leading US-regulated venues. Kalshi offers deep liquidity on both the November FOMC binary and the December terminal rate range contracts, with tight spreads on the 25 bps cut line. Polymarket runs parallel contracts with slightly wider spreads but often better pricing on the tail outcomes.
For a side-by-side view of fees, liquidity, and contract availability across the top prediction market platforms, see our rankings of the best prediction markets.