Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Wire Signal 47 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 70 days to close ·
$8.8M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

47

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 6¢ (6% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

6.0%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

5.0%

calibrated point

Edge

-1.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 3–6%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market6¢

Wire5¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

70 days from now

Volume

$8.8M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	47 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	5.0%
Raw market price	6.0%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-1.0pp
Confidence band	3.5–6.5%
Band width	1.50 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,790,824
Days to resolution	69.9
Resolution date	Jun 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small downward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly over-confident.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 53 days to close ·
$9.1M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jun 13, 2026

53 days from now

Volume

$9.1M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.3pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.4%
Band width	0.26 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$9,076,215
Days to resolution	52.9
Resolution date	Jun 13, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 46 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$9.4M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

46

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 3¢ (3% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

3.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

2.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-1.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 1–3%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market3¢

Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 01, 2026

71 days from now

Volume

$9.4M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	46 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	2.1%
Raw market price	3.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-1.3pp
Confidence band	1.1–3.1%
Band width	1.00 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$9,411,208
Days to resolution	70.9
Resolution date	Jul 01, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small downward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly over-confident.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Wire Signal 53 · CALIBRATED (B)

Market watch · Other

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$9.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

53

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 16¢ (16% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

15.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

16.7%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 11–23%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market16¢

Wire17¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$9.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	53 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	16.7%
Raw market price	15.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.2pp
Confidence band	10.9–22.5%
Band width	5.81 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$9,586,674
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Trump out as President by April 30? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Trump out as President by April 30?

Live Polymarket contract · 9 days to close ·
$10.0M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.7%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.2%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 1–2%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

9 days from now

Volume

$10.0M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.2%
Raw market price	0.7%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	0.5–2.0%
Band width	0.74 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$10,005,439
Days to resolution	8.9
Resolution date	Apr 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Wire Signal 64 · LEAN YES (C)

Market watch · Sports

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Live Polymarket contract · 36 days to close ·
$10.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

64

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 42¢ (a 42% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 51¢ (51%).

Market price

42.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

51.0%

calibrated point

Edge

+8.5pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 44–58%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market42¢

Wire51¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 27, 2026

36 days from now

Volume

$10.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	64 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	51.0%
Raw market price	42.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+8.5pp
Confidence band	43.6–58.4%
Band width	7.42 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$10,160,168
Days to resolution	35.9
Resolution date	May 27, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$10.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$10.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.2pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.3%
Band width	0.21 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$10,877,761
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Live Polymarket contract · 36 days to close ·
$11.0M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.0%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 27, 2026

36 days from now

Volume

$11.0M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.0%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.0pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.1%
Band width	0.09 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$10,973,692
Days to resolution	35.9
Resolution date	May 27, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Wire Signal 33 · NO VALUE (C)

Market watch · Other

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Live Polymarket contract · 101 days to close ·
$11.1M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

33

Wire Signal: NO VALUE
Wire says: NO is the value side. The market prices NO at 52¢ (a 52% chance of NO). Wire thinks it’s closer to 62¢ (62%).

Market price

48.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

38.0%

calibrated point

Edge

-10.5pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 32–44%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market48¢

Wire38¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 31, 2026

101 days from now

Volume

$11.1M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	33 · NO VALUE
Calibrated point	38.0%
Raw market price	48.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-10.5pp
Confidence band	31.7–44.4%
Band width	6.37 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$11,109,732
Days to resolution	101.4
Resolution date	Jul 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve lower than they price. Our calibrated point is below the market.

Horizon

In the 90–180-day window — where our archive shows the lowest Brier.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Wire Signal 45 · LEAN NO (C)

Market watch · Sports

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Live Polymarket contract · 36 days to close ·
$11.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

45

Wire Signal: LEAN NO
Wire says: NO is the value side. The market prices NO at 43¢ (a 43% chance of NO). Wire thinks it’s closer to 46¢ (46%).

Market price

57.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

54.4%

calibrated point

Edge

-3.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 47–62%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market57¢

Wire54¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 27, 2026

36 days from now

Volume

$11.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	45 · LEAN NO
Calibrated point	54.4%
Raw market price	57.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-3.1pp
Confidence band	47.0–61.7%
Band width	7.40 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$11,192,869
Days to resolution	35.9
Resolution date	May 27, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small downward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly over-confident.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Author: pw_admin

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