Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Live Polymarket contract · 166 days to close ·
$8.0M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.9%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.5pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Oct 04, 2026

166 days from now

Volume

$8.0M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.9%
Raw market price	0.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.5pp
Confidence band	0.4–1.4%
Band width	0.51 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,032,597
Days to resolution	165.9
Resolution date	Oct 04, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

In the 90–180-day window — where our archive shows the lowest Brier.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?

Live Polymarket contract · 229 days to close ·
$8.0M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.2%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 06, 2026

229 days from now

Volume

$8.0M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.2%
Raw market price	0.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.3pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.6%
Band width	0.34 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,033,399
Days to resolution	228.9
Resolution date	Dec 06, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 42 · LEAN NO (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$8.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

42

Wire Signal: LEAN NO
Wire says: NO is the value side. The market prices NO at 95¢ (a 95% chance of NO). Wire thinks it’s closer to 98¢ (98%).

Market price

4.6%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

2.3%

calibrated point

Edge

-2.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 1–3%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market5¢

Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 01, 2026

71 days from now

Volume

$8.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	42 · LEAN NO
Calibrated point	2.3%
Raw market price	4.6%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-2.3pp
Confidence band	1.3–3.4%
Band width	1.04 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,217,321
Days to resolution	70.9
Resolution date	Jul 01, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small downward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly over-confident.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Netanyahu out by April 30? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Other

Netanyahu out by April 30?

Live Polymarket contract · 9 days to close ·
$8.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.7%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.1%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.5pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–2%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

9 days from now

Volume

$8.3M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.1%
Raw market price	0.7%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.5pp
Confidence band	0.4–1.9%
Band width	0.77 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,253,327
Days to resolution	8.9
Resolution date	Apr 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Wire Signal 62 · LEAN YES (B)

Market watch · Other

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$8.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

62

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 6¢ (a 6% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 11¢ (11%).

Market price

6.3%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

11.2%

calibrated point

Edge

+4.8pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 6–16%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market6¢

Wire11¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$8.3M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	62 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	11.2%
Raw market price	6.3%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+4.8pp
Confidence band	6.3–16.1%
Band width	4.90 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$8,255,387
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?

Live Polymarket contract · 229 days to close ·
$8.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.2%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 06, 2026

229 days from now

Volume

$8.3M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.2%
Raw market price	0.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.3pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.6%
Band width	0.34 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,335,214
Days to resolution	228.9
Resolution date	Dec 06, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Wire Signal 54 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Crypto

Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$8.4M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

54

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.7%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–3%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$8.4M

lifetime trading

Category

Crypto

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	54 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.7%
Raw market price	0.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.2pp
Confidence band	0.5–3.0%
Band width	1.25 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,357,861
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (B)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$8.5M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 13¢ (13% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

13.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

14.0%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 9–19%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market13¢

Wire14¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 01, 2026

71 days from now

Volume

$8.5M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	14.0%
Raw market price	13.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	8.9–19.2%
Band width	5.15 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$8,507,483
Days to resolution	70.9
Resolution date	Jul 01, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Champion?

Live Polymarket contract · 229 days to close ·
$8.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.2%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 06, 2026

229 days from now

Volume

$8.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.2%
Raw market price	0.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.3pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.5%
Band width	0.29 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$8,569,611
Days to resolution	228.9
Resolution date	Dec 06, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Wire Signal 70 · YES VALUE (C)

Market watch · Politics

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Live Polymarket contract · 47 days to close ·
$8.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

70

Wire Signal: YES VALUE
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 25¢ (a 25% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 37¢ (37%).

Market price

25.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

37.3%

calibrated point

Edge

+12.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 30–44%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market25¢

Wire37¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jun 07, 2026

47 days from now

Volume

$8.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	70 · YES VALUE
Calibrated point	37.3%
Raw market price	25.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+12.1pp
Confidence band	30.1–44.5%
Band width	7.18 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$8,628,644
Days to resolution	46.9
Resolution date	Jun 07, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Liquid market — full-weight in our calibration.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Author: pw_admin

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