US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Wire Signal 70 · YES VALUE (C)

Market watch · Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 1 days to close ·
$17.5M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

70

Wire Signal: YES VALUE
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 18¢ (a 18% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 29¢ (29%).

Market price

17.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

29.5%

calibrated point

Edge

+12.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 19–39%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market18¢

Wire29¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 22, 2026

1 days from now

Volume

$17.5M

lifetime trading

Category

Geopolitics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	70 · YES VALUE
Calibrated point	29.5%
Raw market price	17.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+12.0pp
Confidence band	19.5–39.4%
Band width	9.99 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$17,497,442
Days to resolution	0.9
Resolution date	Apr 22, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

Inside the 24-hour window — late-stage contested markets are genuinely harder.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$18.8M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$18.8M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.2pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.4%
Band width	0.25 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$18,755,252
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Live Polymarket contract · 40 days to close ·
$19.1M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.0%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 31, 2026

40 days from now

Volume

$19.1M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.0%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.0pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.1%
Band width	0.09 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$19,147,275
Days to resolution	39.9
Resolution date	May 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Wire Signal 63 · LEAN YES (B)

Market watch · Geopolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$19.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

63

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 9¢ (a 9% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 14¢ (14%).

Market price

8.7%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

14.0%

calibrated point

Edge

+5.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 9–19%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market9¢

Wire14¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$19.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Geopolitics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	63 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	14.0%
Raw market price	8.7%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+5.3pp
Confidence band	8.6–19.4%
Band width	5.40 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$19,597,654
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Wire Signal 63 · LEAN YES (C)

Market watch · Other

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Live Polymarket contract · 9 days to close ·
$19.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

63

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 28¢ (a 28% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 36¢ (36%).

Market price

28.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

36.3%

calibrated point

Edge

+7.8pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 29–44%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market28¢

Wire36¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

9 days from now

Volume

$19.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	63 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	36.3%
Raw market price	28.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+7.8pp
Confidence band	28.7–43.9%
Band width	7.58 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$19,604,633
Days to resolution	8.9
Resolution date	Apr 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$19.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$19.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.2%
Band width	0.16 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$19,731,375
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 54 · CALIBRATED (B)

Market watch · Sports

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$19.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

54

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 15¢ (15% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

14.8%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

16.2%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.5pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 11–22%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market15¢

Wire16¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 01, 2026

71 days from now

Volume

$19.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	54 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	16.2%
Raw market price	14.8%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.5pp
Confidence band	10.7–21.7%
Band width	5.47 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$19,881,089
Days to resolution	70.9
Resolution date	Jul 01, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Live Polymarket contract · 36 days to close ·
$20.1M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.0%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 27, 2026

36 days from now

Volume

$20.1M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.0%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.0pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.1%
Band width	0.09 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$20,108,818
Days to resolution	35.9
Resolution date	May 27, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (B)

Market watch · Sports

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Live Polymarket contract · 40 days to close ·
$21.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 12¢ (12% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

11.8%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

11.9%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 7–17%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market12¢

Wire12¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 31, 2026

40 days from now

Volume

$21.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	11.9%
Raw market price	11.8%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.1pp
Confidence band	7.1–16.8%
Band width	4.82 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$21,219,210
Days to resolution	39.9
Resolution date	May 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$21.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$21.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.2pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.3%
Band width	0.21 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$21,677,436
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Author: pw_admin

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