Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Live Polymarket contract · 71 days to close ·
$21.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 01, 2026

71 days from now

Volume

$21.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.2pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.3%
Band width	0.21 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$21,879,186
Days to resolution	70.9
Resolution date	Jul 01, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$23.1M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$23.1M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.2%
Band width	0.16 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$23,067,480
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$23.4M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

49

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$23.4M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	49 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.2pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.3%
Band width	0.21 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$23,353,574
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Economy

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Live Polymarket contract · 8 days to close ·
$24.0M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 99¢ (99% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

99.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

100.0%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 100–100%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market99¢

Wire100¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 29, 2026

8 days from now

Volume

$24.0M

lifetime trading

Category

Economy

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	100.0%
Raw market price	99.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	100.0–100.0%
Band width	0.00 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$24,003,313
Days to resolution	7.9
Resolution date	Apr 29, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Wire Signal 51 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Economy

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Live Polymarket contract · 8 days to close ·
$24.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

51

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.4%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.5%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 29, 2026

8 days from now

Volume

$24.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Economy

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	51 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.5%
Raw market price	0.4%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.2pp
Confidence band	0.3–0.8%
Band width	0.27 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$24,158,520
Days to resolution	7.9
Resolution date	Apr 29, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Wire Signal 56 · LEAN YES (C)

Market watch · Other

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$24.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

56

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 22¢ (a 22% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 25¢ (25%).

Market price

21.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

25.1%

calibrated point

Edge

+3.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

C

band 18–32%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market22¢

Wire25¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$24.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

C

thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	56 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	25.1%
Raw market price	21.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+3.6pp
Confidence band	18.4–31.9%
Band width	6.75 pp
Grade	C
Lifetime volume	$24,667,125
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Other

Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$24.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.3%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$24.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.3%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.6%
Band width	0.34 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$24,898,671
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Other

Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Live Polymarket contract · 39 days to close ·
$27.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.0pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

May 30, 2026

39 days from now

Volume

$27.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.0pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.3%
Band width	0.19 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$27,713,886
Days to resolution	38.9
Resolution date	May 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$29.6M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$29.6M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.2%
Band width	0.16 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$29,639,110
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Economy

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Live Polymarket contract · 8 days to close ·
$29.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.4%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 29, 2026

8 days from now

Volume

$29.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Economy

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.4%
Raw market price	0.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.1pp
Confidence band	0.2–0.6%
Band width	0.23 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$29,715,998
Days to resolution	7.9
Resolution date	Apr 29, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Author: pw_admin

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