Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Other

Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$31.8M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.3%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–1%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$31.8M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.3%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.6%
Band width	0.34 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$31,760,191
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Wire Signal 63 · LEAN YES (B)

Market watch · Geopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Live Polymarket contract · 70 days to close ·
$32.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

63

Wire Signal: LEAN YES
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 8¢ (a 8% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 14¢ (14%).

Market price

8.5%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

13.7%

calibrated point

Edge

+5.2pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

B

band 9–19%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market8¢

Wire14¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jun 30, 2026

70 days from now

Volume

$32.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Geopolitics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

B

reasonable fit

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	63 · LEAN YES
Calibrated point	13.7%
Raw market price	8.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+5.2pp
Confidence band	8.6–18.8%
Band width	5.10 pp
Grade	B
Lifetime volume	$32,710,993
Days to resolution	69.9
Resolution date	Jun 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Wire Signal 54 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$32.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

54

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 7¢ (7% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

7.3%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

8.6%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.3pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 7–10%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market7¢

Wire9¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$32.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	54 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	8.6%
Raw market price	7.3%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.3pp
Confidence band	6.9–10.3%
Band width	1.71 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$32,718,123
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Sports

Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Live Polymarket contract · 90 days to close ·
$32.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.1%

calibrated point

Edge

-0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Jul 20, 2026

90 days from now

Volume

$32.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Sports

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.1%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	-0.1pp
Confidence band	0.0–0.2%
Band width	0.16 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$32,871,353
Days to resolution	89.9
Resolution date	Jul 20, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

1–3 months out — approaching the calibration sweet spot.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Wire Signal 54 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Geopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Live Polymarket contract · 9 days to close ·
$36.9M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

54

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

1.2%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

2.4%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–5%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 30, 2026

9 days from now

Volume

$36.9M

lifetime trading

Category

Geopolitics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	54 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	2.4%
Raw market price	1.2%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.1pp
Confidence band	0.2–4.6%
Band width	2.21 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$36,925,133
Days to resolution	8.9
Resolution date	Apr 30, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Economy

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Live Polymarket contract · 8 days to close ·
$43.7M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

50

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 0¢ (0% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

0.2%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–0%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market0¢

Wire0¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Apr 29, 2026

8 days from now

Volume

$43.7M

lifetime trading

Category

Economy

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	50 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	0.2%
Raw market price	0.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.1pp
Confidence band	0.1–0.4%
Band width	0.17 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$43,745,670
Days to resolution	7.9
Resolution date	Apr 29, 2026

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Less than a month to resolution.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Live Polymarket contract · 931 days to close ·
$47.2M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

1.1%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.6%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 1–3%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire2¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Nov 07, 2028

931 days from now

Volume

$47.2M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.6%
Raw market price	1.1%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	0.6–2.6%
Band width	0.98 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$47,180,818
Days to resolution	930.9
Resolution date	Nov 07, 2028

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Long-horizon market (1+ year). Calibration widens for multi-year contracts.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Live Polymarket contract · 931 days to close ·
$48.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.7%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.2%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 0–2%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Nov 07, 2028

931 days from now

Volume

$48.3M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.2%
Raw market price	0.7%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	0.4–2.1%
Band width	0.86 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$48,260,269
Days to resolution	930.9
Resolution date	Nov 07, 2028

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Long-horizon market (1+ year). Calibration widens for multi-year contracts.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Politics

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Live Polymarket contract · 931 days to close ·
$48.8M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

52

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 1¢ (1% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

0.9%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

1.4%

calibrated point

Edge

+0.6pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 1–2%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market1¢

Wire1¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Nov 07, 2028

931 days from now

Volume

$48.8M

lifetime trading

Category

Politics

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	52 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	1.4%
Raw market price	0.9%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+0.6pp
Confidence band	0.5–2.4%
Band width	0.92 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$48,766,282
Days to resolution	930.9
Resolution date	Nov 07, 2028

Calibration shift

The market and the calibration are in close agreement.

Horizon

Long-horizon market (1+ year). Calibration widens for multi-year contracts.

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Wire Signal 54 · CALIBRATED (A)

Market watch · Other

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Live Polymarket contract · 254 days to close ·
$58.3M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

54

Wire Signal: CALIBRATED
Wire says: The market price looks right. Polymarket has YES at 4¢ (4% chance) and Wire agrees — no clear value on either side right now.

Market price

3.9%

Polymarket YES

Wire’s read

4.9%

calibrated point

Edge

+1.1pp

Wire − Market

Confidence

A

band 3–6%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market4¢

Wire5¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?

A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?

The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?

Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

254 days from now

Volume

$58.3M

lifetime trading

Category

Other

per our taxonomy

Wire confidence

A

tight band, high-volume, in the calibration sweet spot

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric	Value
Wire Signal (0–100)	54 · CALIBRATED
Calibrated point	4.9%
Raw market price	3.9%
Difference (calibrated − raw)	+1.1pp
Confidence band	3.5–6.3%
Band width	1.43 pp
Grade	A
Lifetime volume	$58,326,271
Days to resolution	253.9
Resolution date	Dec 31, 2026

Calibration shift

The archive suggests a small upward shift: historically, markets here have been slightly under-confident.

Horizon

Medium-horizon market (6–12 months).

Liquidity

Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

April 21, 2026

Author: pw_admin

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