Author: pw_admin

Case Study: Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $154.2M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.0%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 190 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–0.8%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 25, 2024 0.3%

25% in Nov 11, 2024 0.4%

Halfway Dec 28, 2024 0.4%

75% in Feb 13, 2025 0.1%

Close Apr 02, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.0%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Dec 29, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.4%

Wire Score point 0.2%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side NO

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L +$0

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $154.2M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $116.6M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 305 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–8.1%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jan 07, 2024 0.7%

25% in Mar 23, 2024 1.1%

Halfway Jun 07, 2024 0.5%

75% in Aug 22, 2024 0.2%

Close Nov 06, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jun 07, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.5%

Wire Score point 1.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.6–1.7%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $116.6M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $241.7M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 305 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–1.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jan 07, 2024 0.7%

25% in Mar 23, 2024 0.4%

Halfway Jun 07, 2024 0.4%

75% in Aug 22, 2024 0.4%

Close Nov 06, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jun 07, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.4%

Wire Score point 0.9%

Confidence band (A) 0.4–1.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $241.7M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $133.2M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 132 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–6.0%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Aug 01, 2025 6.0%

25% in Sep 02, 2025 1.5%

Halfway Oct 05, 2025 0.9%

75% in Nov 07, 2025 1.2%

Close Dec 10, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Oct 06, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.9%

Wire Score point 1.3%

Confidence band (A) 0.9–1.6%

Grade A

Wire Signal 51 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $133.2M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Resolved Yes at 98.8% after $106.8M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0001. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 52). The market resolved YES.

Closing price

99.2%

market at resolution

Wire point

100.0%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

52

CALIBRATED

Outcome

Yes

Brier 0.0001

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 134 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 42.5–99.2%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 18, 2025 49.5%

25% in Oct 21, 2025 44.5%

Halfway Nov 23, 2025 49.0%

75% in Dec 25, 2025 87.5%

Close Jan 28, 2026 99.2%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 99.2%

Wire Score point 100.0%

Confidence band (A) 100.0–100.0%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome Yes

Brier score 0.0001

Mid-life snapshot · Nov 24, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 50.0%

Wire Score point 40.3%

Confidence band (B) 35.8–44.8%

Grade B

Wire Signal 26 · NO VALUE

Wire’s side NO

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $106.8M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Horizon Stories

Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%?

Resolved No at 7.0% after $109.1M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0049. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0049

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 79 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–9.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 18, 2024 9.5%

25% in Oct 07, 2024 5.5%

Halfway Oct 27, 2024 3.7%

75% in Nov 15, 2024 0.1%

Close Dec 05, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0049

Mid-life snapshot · Oct 27, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 3.7%

Wire Score point 3.5%

Confidence band (A) 2.4–4.6%

Grade A

Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side NO

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L +$4

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $109.1M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $115.1M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 219 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–3.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Mar 21, 2025 3.5%

25% in May 14, 2025 1.5%

Halfway Jul 08, 2025 0.4%

75% in Aug 31, 2025 0.5%

Close Oct 25, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jul 08, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.4%

Wire Score point 1.0%

Confidence band (A) 0.5–1.6%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $115.1M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $107.5M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 307 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–50.0%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jan 05, 2024 50.0%

25% in Mar 21, 2024 0.4%

Halfway Jun 06, 2024 0.2%

75% in Aug 21, 2024 0.2%

Close Nov 06, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jun 06, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.2%

Wire Score point 0.6%

Confidence band (A) 0.2–1.1%

Grade A

Wire Signal 51 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $107.5M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $378.0M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.0%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 205 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–2.1%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Sep 25, 2024 1.9%

25% in Nov 15, 2024 0.8%

Halfway Jan 05, 2025 0.9%

75% in Feb 25, 2025 0.4%

Close Apr 17, 2025 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.0%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.2%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Jan 05, 2025

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.9%

Wire Score point 0.5%

Confidence band (A) 0.1–1.0%

Grade A

Wire Signal 49 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side NO

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L +$1

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $378.0M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026
Case Study: Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? — How Polymarket’s Price Moved
Resolved case study · Early Signals

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

Resolved No at 0.1% after $124.0M in trading volume.
Brier score 0.0000. Other category.

What is this?

A resolved Polymarket contract from our archive. We replay the Wire Score against the price at close and at the midpoint, then show what Wire would have called and how that call paid off.

The bottom line

A textbook case of the market being right from the start.

Receipt · Wire at close

What Wire called vs. what happened

CALIBRATED

Wire called the price CALIBRATED at close (signal 50). The market resolved NO.

Closing price

0.1%

market at resolution

Wire point

0.1%

calibrated read

Wire Signal

50

CALIBRATED

Outcome

No

Brier 0.0000

Price trajectory

How the market moved over 144 snapshots

Five checkpoints across the contract’s life. Full daily-snapshot range: 0.1–1.5%.

Checkpoint Date Yes price

Start Jul 10, 2024 1.4%

25% in Aug 14, 2024 0.8%

Halfway Sep 19, 2024 0.8%

75% in Oct 25, 2024 0.2%

Close Nov 30, 2024 0.1%

At close

Wire Score detail

Closing market price 0.1%

Wire Score point 0.1%

Confidence band (A) 0.0–0.4%

Grade A

Wire Signal 50 · CALIBRATED

Actual outcome No

Brier score 0.0000

Mid-life snapshot · Sep 20, 2024

What Wire would have said halfway through

Not a live forecast — a backward-looking illustration of what the Wire Score would have produced at this midpoint, using only information available then.

Market price 0.8%

Wire Score point 1.3%

Confidence band (A) 0.6–2.0%

Grade A

Wire Signal 52 · CALIBRATED

Wire’s side YES

$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L $-100

Archive context

What the archive says about markets like this

This market is one of 1,914 resolved binary contracts in the PredictWire Calibration Archive. A Polymarket contract with lifetime volume of $124.0M sits in the top tier of archive volume — very liquid markets have a volume-weighted Brier of 0.0665 across the archive, compared to 0.0865 for the full set. Liquidity matters for calibration.

The Wire Score framework uses every (price, outcome) pair in the archive to calibrate raw prices into probabilities and to assign a letter grade based on confidence-band width. v2 fits a separate calibration curve per category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, other) and falls back to a global curve when a category is too thin. Across all 194,111 archive snapshots, Wire Score v2 improves Brier by +4.86% over raw prices (and +2.85% over v1) while remaining monotone across grades.
About this page. Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Price data from Polymarket’s public CLOB; outcome data from Polymarket’s gamma-api. Methodology: /wire-score/. Last reviewed April 21, 2026. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.
April 21, 2026

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 25, 2024	0.3%
25% in	Nov 11, 2024	0.4%
Halfway	Dec 28, 2024	0.4%
75% in	Feb 13, 2025	0.1%
Close	Apr 02, 2025	0.1%

Closing market price	0.1%
Wire Score point	0.0%
Confidence band (A)	0.0–0.2%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	50 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	No
Brier score	0.0000

Market price	0.4%
Wire Score point	0.2%
Confidence band (A)	0.0–0.4%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	49 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	NO
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	+$0

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jan 07, 2024	0.7%
25% in	Mar 23, 2024	1.1%
Halfway	Jun 07, 2024	0.5%
75% in	Aug 22, 2024	0.2%
Close	Nov 06, 2024	0.1%

Market price	0.5%
Wire Score point	1.1%
Confidence band (A)	0.6–1.7%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Aug 01, 2025	6.0%
25% in	Sep 02, 2025	1.5%
Halfway	Oct 05, 2025	0.9%
75% in	Nov 07, 2025	1.2%
Close	Dec 10, 2025	0.1%

Market price	0.9%
Wire Score point	1.3%
Confidence band (A)	0.9–1.6%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	51 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 18, 2025	49.5%
25% in	Oct 21, 2025	44.5%
Halfway	Nov 23, 2025	49.0%
75% in	Dec 25, 2025	87.5%
Close	Jan 28, 2026	99.2%

Closing market price	99.2%
Wire Score point	100.0%
Confidence band (A)	100.0–100.0%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Actual outcome	Yes
Brier score	0.0001

Market price	50.0%
Wire Score point	40.3%
Confidence band (B)	35.8–44.8%
Grade	B
Wire Signal	26 · NO VALUE
Wire’s side	NO
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 18, 2024	9.5%
25% in	Oct 07, 2024	5.5%
Halfway	Oct 27, 2024	3.7%
75% in	Nov 15, 2024	0.1%
Close	Dec 05, 2024	0.1%

Market price	3.7%
Wire Score point	3.5%
Confidence band (A)	2.4–4.6%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	49 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	NO
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	+$4

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Mar 21, 2025	3.5%
25% in	May 14, 2025	1.5%
Halfway	Jul 08, 2025	0.4%
75% in	Aug 31, 2025	0.5%
Close	Oct 25, 2025	0.1%

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jan 05, 2024	50.0%
25% in	Mar 21, 2024	0.4%
Halfway	Jun 06, 2024	0.2%
75% in	Aug 21, 2024	0.2%
Close	Nov 06, 2024	0.1%

Market price	0.2%
Wire Score point	0.6%
Confidence band (A)	0.2–1.1%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	51 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Sep 25, 2024	1.9%
25% in	Nov 15, 2024	0.8%
Halfway	Jan 05, 2025	0.9%
75% in	Feb 25, 2025	0.4%
Close	Apr 17, 2025	0.1%

Checkpoint	Date	Yes price
Start	Jul 10, 2024	1.4%
25% in	Aug 14, 2024	0.8%
Halfway	Sep 19, 2024	0.8%
75% in	Oct 25, 2024	0.2%
Close	Nov 30, 2024	0.1%

Market price	0.8%
Wire Score point	1.3%
Confidence band (A)	0.6–2.0%
Grade	A
Wire Signal	52 · CALIBRATED
Wire’s side	YES
$100 on Wire’s side → realized P&L	$-100

Author: pw_admin

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