PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0PREDICTWIRE · LIVEGavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination: 28% ▲ 0.4Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League: 12% ▼ 0.2the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals: 15% ▲ 0.1Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7: 87% ▲ 0.8Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election: 17%Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 3% ▼ 0.1the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup: 23% ▲ 1.1J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination: 39% ▲ 0.8the U.S. invade Iran before 2027: 30% ▼ 2.0

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Wire Signal 70 · YES VALUE (C)

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Market watch · Geopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Live Polymarket contract · 1 days to close ·
$17.5M lifetime volume · captured April 21, 2026.

70

Wire Signal: YES VALUE
Wire says: YES is the value side. The market prices YES at 18¢ (a 18% chance). Wire thinks it’s closer to 29¢ (29%).
Market price
17.5%
Polymarket YES

Wire’s read
29.5%
calibrated point

Edge
+12.0pp
Wire − Market

Confidence
C
band 19–39%

Where the edge lives

Market vs. Wire on the 0–100¢ axis

The gap between the two pins is the edge. Wire’s read is calibrated against 194,111 historical snapshots.

Market18¢
Wire29¢

0¢ · NO50¢100¢ · YES

Open on Polymarket →

What is this?
A live read on a single Polymarket contract. The market price is what traders are paying for a YES share. Wire’s read is what our archive says a contract priced like this should be worth, based on how similar ones have resolved.

How do I read it?
The Wire Signal is a 0–100 score. Traffic light: 0–35 = NO is the value side, 45–55 = we agree with the market, 65–100 = YES is the value side. Grade is confidence: A strongest, D noisiest.

How do I use it?
Strong zones with a Grade A or B are where Wire thinks there’s a real mispricing. Calibrated zones mean the market is already priced right. Not trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.

At a glance

The basics on this contract

Resolves
Apr 22, 2026
1 days from now

Volume
$17.5M
lifetime trading

Category
Geopolitics
per our taxonomy

Wire confidence
C
thin market or ugly horizon

Under the hood

The full Wire Score

Computed from the live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Every number here is reproducible from the methodology.

Metric Value
Wire Signal (0–100) 70 · YES VALUE
Calibrated point 29.5%
Raw market price 17.5%
Difference (calibrated − raw) +12.0pp
Confidence band 19.5–39.4%
Band width 9.99 pp
Grade C
Lifetime volume $17,497,442
Days to resolution 0.9
Resolution date Apr 22, 2026
Calibration shift
The archive says markets priced here tend to resolve higher than they price. Our calibrated point is above the market.

Horizon
Inside the 24-hour window — late-stage contested markets are genuinely harder.

Liquidity
Very high liquidity — plenty of traders establishing the price.

About this page. Auto-generated from a live Polymarket snapshot captured April 21, 2026. Wire Score v2.1 (per-category calibration) · Wire Signal v2.2 (consumer-facing 0–100 scale). Editorial Standards apply. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io. Nothing on this page is trading advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose. PredictWire may earn a commission on qualifying accounts opened through our Polymarket links; this does not influence the Wire Score. Full disclosure.

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