Receipts
Wire’s track record, in one page. Every row is a Polymarket contract that has already resolved — what Wire called at close vs. what actually happened. No cherry-picking.
On 24 other markets Wire agreed with the price and stayed quiet.
Every resolved case study
Sorted by case-study order. Each row: what Wire said at close, what the market was priced at, and what actually happened.
How these receipts were generated. For each resolved market, we take the price at close, run it through the same Wire Score v2.1 formula used on every live market, and derive the Wire Signal 0–100. We compare Wire’s side (YES if signal ≥ 50, NO if below) to the actual outcome. HIT = Wire’s side matched; MISS = it didn’t; CALIBRATED = Wire explicitly declined to take a side (Signal 45–55). Two things worth remembering: a hit on a strong call (YES VALUE or NO VALUE) is a genuine accuracy data point, while a hit on a lean is just directionally plausible — we report them separately for that reason.
Last refresh: April 21, 2026.
Related: Live Board (today’s sharpest signals) · Methodology · Calibration Archive · Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io