Prediction markets are moving on multiple fronts today, with significant odds shifts in Fed rate cut expectations, the 2026 Senate midterms, and Bitcoin price targets.
Fed Rate Cut Odds – June Meeting at 62%
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the June 2026 FOMC meeting has climbed to 62% on Kalshi, up from 54% a week ago. Softer CPI data and dovish comments from two Fed governors drove the move. September cut odds are at 81%.
2026 Senate Midterms – GOP at 54%
Republican Senate control is priced at 54%, down from 61% in January. Key races in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are seeing heavy volume as generic ballot polling narrows heading into campaign season.
Bitcoin $100K by June – 38% Probability
The “Bitcoin above $100,000 by June 30, 2026” contract on Polymarket trades at 38% YES. Bitcoin is near $84,000, needing a ~19% move in under three months. The December 2026 contract is far more bullish at 67%.
US Recession 2026 – Odds Tick Up to 31%
Recession probability for 2026 has risen to 31% on Kalshi, the highest since Q4 2025, reflecting tariff concerns and persistent yield curve inversion.
Where to Trade
All contracts above are available on Kalshi (US legal, CFTC-regulated) and most are also on Polymarket. See our platform rankings to choose the right platform.
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About this article: Written and reviewed by The PredictWire Research Team under our Editorial Standards. Platform rankings follow our public Methodology. Prediction market contracts carry risk of total loss. Nothing here is financial advice. Corrections: corrections@predictwire.io.